A new Cornell study of online poker seems counterintuitive: The more hands players win, the less money they’re likely to collect – especially when it comes to novice players.
The Journal of Gambling Studies. Nice name. Interesting study, also.
Wining a lot of small hands means you are more likely to bet big and lose. People overestimate their chances of winning and seem to feel that if they have won a lot of ands, they are likely to win more.
As is typical, the press release does not link to the article. They want $34 dollars to download the article but the abstract is free. This says it all:
Smaller-stakes players also have more difficulty appropriately weighting incentive structures with frequent small gains and occasional large losses. Consequently, the relationship between winning a large proportion of hands and profitability is negative, and is strongest in small-stakes games
Big-stakes players seem to have a better understanding of risk-reward and do a better job of mentally accounting for all the factors needed to win.
Well, at least to win more often than small-stakes players.
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