Bad news

by nick_russill
Newsweek’s Science Editor explains why climate change is “even worse than we feared” and how “a consensus has developed during IPY that the Greenland ice sheet will disappear.”:
[Via Climate Progress]

‘Among the phrases you really, really do not want to hear from climate scientists are: “that really shocked us,” “we had no idea how bad it was,” and “reality is well ahead of the climate models.” Yet in speaking to researchers who focus on the Arctic, you hear comments like these so regularly they begin to sound like the thumping refrain from Jaws: annoying harbingers of something that you really, really wish would go away.’

So writes Newsweek’s Sharon Begley in one of the most thoughtful climate pieces ever to appear in a major national publication. She makes the very case I did in my recent post (except without the hyperlinks – the Achilles Heel of MSM science writing). For more on the International Polar Year, see The IPY: “Arctic sea ice will probably not recover” and their website.

[More]

One thing mentioned in the article is the much larger amount of methane held in the Arctic tundra than previously believed. When warmed up, this methane enters the atmosphere, increasing global warming. Although this is a ‘natural’ effect (so expect to hear deniers try to claim that man is not responsible for warming – it is the natural release from the tundra.), it is only happening due to the increased temperatures of anthropogenic production of greenhouse gases.

What the models have not been able to accurately detail is the rapid positive feedbacks occurring that multiply the effects of carbon dioxide. They continue to undershoot reality. Sea levels are rising faster than predicted and glaciers are disappearing faster.

And what will happen if the new El Nino is as strong as the one in 1997-98? That is not deemed likely at the moment but with the models underestimating things, it will be worthwhile to keep a sharp eye on it.

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