The Monty Hall Problem suggests we should reward the GOP switchers

The Monty Hall Problem presents a counterintuitive solution – those who switch will win more often. We should do the same by sending money to those in the GOP who did the right thing on the Yemen Resolution and the Wall Resolution – switched to oppose Trump. Switching was the right choice and rewarding them with ash could have a huge impact on those who did not switch.

Sometime in the next 12 months, Donald Trump will almost certainly be impeached. But what is the likelihood that at least 67 senators will vote to convict? More importantly, how will this probability change over time as revelations of Trump’s criminal conduct continue to spill into the public sphere? In December, famed Watergate journalist Elizabeth Drew suggested impeachment was “inescapable” — that public pressure will swell as time goes on. “Too many people think in terms of stasis: How things are is how they will remain. They don’t take into account that opinion moves with events.”


People often make choices or decide to change their choices based more on emotional factors than actual facts. The Monty Hall problem revealed this to me when I first read about it. It was easy for me to solve – How many times would I win if I had made a wrong choice initially and then changed versus the chances that I made the right choice and stayed? I’d win 2 times by switching vs 1 time by staying.

But many people simply did not want to see that they would make a bad choice at all. They were more upset tat the thought hat switching would cause them to lose than cause them to win. Instead of looking at it as “I was wrong at first but I can win by switching” , they saw it as “Crap, I had the right door and now I lost”. Even if the former happened twice as often as the latter.

Now think about how Republicans may well come to look at sticking with Trump. How will they see it when the switchers gain more from switching than they do for staying with Trump?

We need to reward Republicans for switching. Then that will serve as an incentive for more of them to do it.

Some Republicans are switching because the positive aspects of switching may be greater than those of staying. On both the Yemen Resolution and the Wall Emergency Resolution, there are Constitutional questions opposing Trump as well as plain old political ones.

Let’s add another reason that is near to most of their hearts – money. We can only win this war when liberals and conservatives fight together. Some will do it for patriotic reasons, But some will do it for money. 

If the ones who switched saw an uptick in money, the others would take note.

If it turns out that Trump’s emotional threats against switching are vapor, that switching Republicans are seen as winners, then Trump could see a stampede of switchers.

Now add in real evidence of crimes and the stampede might be even greater. 

So what is the best way to get money to them in ways that demonstrate why?