People are learning about smartphones only from Apple

marcoby asymco

How many Americans will be using an iPhone when the US smartphone market saturates?
[Via asymco]

As previously noted, the US smartphone market has followed an almost perfectly logistic growth. The measured data (via comScore, in green below) follows a predictive logistic function (thin blue whose formula is discussed here).

Screen Shot 2013-12-13 at 12-13-11.30.54 AM


The orange line (Apple) is the only one following the green line. They have been just about parallel since the iPhone came out. It suggests that Apple will hit saturation for the iPhone sometime in early 2017, if it can keep things up.

I wrote last month about how the adoption of the iPhone follows the expected curve for people learning about a new technology or innovation. None of the other curves here come close to following that curve of customer learning.

It is apparent that those phones do not follow this curve. Only Apple follows the exact curve of customer learning. The others are providing something else for customers or for makers or for telecos.

But it is not learning.

Only Apple has a direct connection to its customers – teaching them while they learn. This could explain the phenomenal growth Apple has sustained.