Every politician and economist should take notice of the NBC/WSs poll that was just released.
This poll has some amazing, unprecedented numbers in it. Some astounding numbers. In this poll, the GOP is losing, the Democrats are holding steady, Obama is winning and the Tea Party is losing support, all while an scary number of Americans think the economy is going to tank.
For one, Obama appears to have the likability part, with more people favorable than unfavorable. Every other politician and institution is very much disliked. The Democrats in Congress. The Republicans in Congress. The Tea Party. John Boehner. Harry Reid. Even Ted Cruz.
The favorable/unfavorable of the Dems has pretty much held steady over the last year (39% favorable;40% negative; -1) while the Tea Party is outright disliked (21%:47%; -26). Only the GOP is disliked more (24%:53%; -29) And Ted Cruz is actually like less than Boehner (14% favorable to 17% favorable). Obama is the only one with a more positive than negative view (47%/41%;+6).
70% dislike the job the GOP is doing in Congress.. 59% dislike the Democrat’s job.
And this should put a fear into the GOP: when asked whether they wanted a GOP-controlled House or a Democrat-controlled one, the numbers have gone from +3 in September for the Dems to +8. The last time it was that positive for the Dems was 4 years ago.
Sixty percent want to throw al the bums out. This is the highest number they have ever seen. Fifty-two percent say the government should do more to help people, the most since 2008!
This does not bode well for elections next year unless things change. But people also vote based on the economy and that could be bad news.
Consumer confidence has collapsed. This is the scary part. Forty-two percent say the economy will get worse over the next year. Even the depths of the collapse in 2007 did not produce anything above about 20% worried the economy would get worse. This is twice the number as was seen in July, 4 months ago!
Only 17% think the economy will get better. At no time back to 1994 have there been consumer confidence numbers like these in this poll. This is unprecedented.
And less than 10% think the current negotiations will make the economy better. Sixty-three percent say the negotiations will make thinks worse.
Just in time for the biggest buying period of the year and consumer confidence tanks. This could make a recession happen just by itself as people refuse to spend money on things.
People believe the current debacle with the shutdown and debt ceiling will be responsible. A majority directly blame the Republicans for the shutdown. Seventy-three percent of those polled say the shutdown is extremely or very serious. This compares with 57% in 1995, the last major shutdown. About 63% believe that not raising the debt ceiling will be a serious problem.
I guess not too surprisingly, now that more know what Obamacare will do, 50% percent do not want to defund Obamacare. This is up from 44% in September.
Finally, 70% say they do not support the Tea Party, the largest percentage in the history of the poll.
Now a lot of this shift happened in the last month, so it might all go away if things settle down. But the worry about the economy probably won’t and could have a huge effect on purchases the next few months.