What they mean when they say Apple defies expectations

Claim Chowder: How Many iPads Sold in 2010
[Via Daring Fireball]

Back on April 2, on Fox News’s Strategy Room, host Clayton Morris asked how many iPads Apple would sell in 2010. This was one day before the Wi-Fi version went on sale. The answers from his guests:

  • Jason Snell: 3 million
  • Andy Ihnatko: 3 million
  • Yours truly: 8 million
  • Mike Rose: 4.5-5 million
  • Ross Rubin: 5 million
  • Natali Del Conte: 5 million
  • Clayton Morris: 9 million

The actual answer: 14.8 million.


John Gruber came closest but he was only 54% of the actual number. Some were only 20%.

It is like The Price is Right where the washer is $1500 and saying the answer was $300. The audience would be screaming “Higher, higher.”

I wonder if anyone will get closer this next year? Perhaps include how many iPhones will Verizon sell?