The models are wrong

Copenhagen Diagnosis

[Via Deltoid]

The Copenhagen Diagnosis is an update to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report to cover research published since then.


This is the science that the cracker who stole the emails from CRU wants to distract you from.

Via RealClimate.


The IPPC projections from the third report from the 90s is the gray triangle. When the real data, from both tidal gauges and satellite records, is overlaid, it hits the top projection limits. The models generally underestimated the effects.

This is something we see again and again when different data sets are examined. Global sea level heights are now estimated to be twice as large as estimated in the report from just a few years ago.

While we know a lot about the West Antarctica Ice, the East Antarctica region has not bee examined as much in depth. The expectation was that since it is so bitterly cold there, climate change was inconsequential. This appears to be wrong.

Accelerated Antarctic ice loss from satellite gravity measurements. It is losing tens of gigatons of mass each year, mostly since 2006.

This data is so new it did not make it into the Copenhagen Diagnosis. It was just published in Nature Geoscience can be read by anyone. East Antarctica has more ice mass than any other location on Earth. If Greenland and West Antarctica completely melted, the combined sea level rise would be about 6-7 meters. If East Antarctica melted, it would raise sea levels 50-60 meters all by itself.

This report estimates that it could be losing 200 gigatons a year now. It will take a long time for it to melt completely. But the fact that it could be melting at all, and as fast as West Antarctica, is very worrisome.

So, again, the previous models were wrong. They underestimated the effects of climate change. Stupid, conservative scientists picking the low end of the estimates when they make their projections. I guess they would not have been listened to if they had chosen more realistic parameters. Of course, there are many people no who do not listen to them anyway.

[Listening to: Woman from Tokyo from the album “Rhino Hi-Five: Deep Purple – EP” by Deep Purple]