I hate it when scientists are conservative in their models

 antarctica

Doubling of Antarctic ice loss revealed by European satellite | 
[Via Environment | theguardian.com]

Antarctica is shedding 160 billion tonnes a year of ice into the ocean, twice the amount of a few years ago, according to new satellite observations. The ice loss is adding to the rising sea levels driven by climate change and even east Antarctica is now losing ice.

The new revelations follows the announcement last week that the collapse of the western Antarctica ice sheet has already begun and is unstoppable, although it may take many centuries to complete.

[More]

When making estimates or creating models, researchers often error on the conservative side. Knowing the conditional nature od science, they would rather be a little right than a lot wrong.

Yet again and again with respect to climate change, we find that they are often much lower with their estimates than reality produces. We see that here.

This new satellite, sent up in 2010, can produce much better data than we have ever had before. And for the entire continent  The amount of ice lost found by the satellite is 100% greater than most of the previous estimates.

The real worrisome thing is that about 13% of the loss has come from East Antarctica. We actually had expected that to see a small increase in ice, not a decrease.

West Antarctica is on an apparent unstoppable collapse which will raise sea levels 6-7 meters. But the huge East Antarctic ice sheet hods a tremendous amount. If it completely melted, sea levels would go up perhaps 60 meters.

This would put Houston completely underwater, Florida would be gone, Philadelphia would be ocean front, Manhattan would be gone, downtown LA would be on the water, San Francisco would be an island, with an inland sound extending from Chico to Fresno.

The Olympic Peninsula would be an island, Seattle would be a small island and Lake Sammamish would be part of Puget Sound. My house would be about half a mile from the new Sound.

Not likely but then, we did not expect the amount of melting seen in West Antarctica. I guess we will know soon.

Watch Texas as it deals with climate change in order to gain insights

 

Warm Texas wind blows green for Mars
[Via BBC News | Science/Nature | World Edition]

Dire climate change warnings in the US begin to hit home

[More]

The BBC makes the good point that Texas is so large and diverse that it serves as a simpler microcosm of climate change. in the US. Necasue it will likely seemore of it than any other.

Politicians are screaming and denying but individuals are making their own choices.

Politicians rant about needing to stay on coal while companies are moving green by using wind. All in the same state.

The authoritarian hierarchies encompassing politicians and one set of corporations are using every tool to maintain their unsustainable processes while distributed democracies encompassing individuals and another set of corporations are trying to find sustainable processes.

All in one state. The size of Texas means both these processes have ramifications elsewhere.

As with any dynamic equilibrium,things can change very rapidly over a very short period of time. So keep an eye on Texas.

Neil deGrasse Tyson moderating a debate on selling space

From March 2014. We live on the cusp of an amazing age. It will save us all.

The next El Nino may be on the way. And it looks like it will be huge

 Super Swells Again

Monster El Nino Emerging From the Depths: Nose of Massive Kelvin Wave Breaks Surface in Eastern Pacific
[Via robertscribbler]

Monster El Nino

(A monster Kelvin wave, possibly more powerful than the 1997-98 event, is now rushing toward the surface of the Eastern Pacific. Image source: NOAA/ESRL.)

We are observing an extraordinarily powerful Kelvin Wave, one that was likely intensified by factors related to human global warming, traveling across the Pacific. It appears to be an epic event in the making. One that may be hotter and stronger than even the record-shattering 1997-98 El Nino. What this means is that we may well be staring down the throat of a global warming riled monster.

[More]

Good times might be over. If this new El Nino is anything close to the one in the late 90s, temperatures could begin rising fast. That first animation is shocking.

There appears to be more heat in this water than was in the huge El Nino of 1997.It was the largest such event in the 20th century. The global temperatures due to that event increased to such hugh levels that it would be almost a decade before the world became that hot again.

anomoly

This is what happened along the Washington Coast during the 1997 event: huge rises in sea levels making storms much more destructive along the coast.

Sealevel

Sometimes the sea level was almost half a meter higher than normal, with wave heights a full meter higher than normal. It will not be a good year to be along the West Coast.

And while it may break the drought in Texas, it could well bring huge amounts of flooding due to extreme weather events. That it, lots of frog stranglers hitting dry ground and running off instead of penetrating.

The West Coast will get little rain and be much hotter, so the food producing areas of the state will be hard hit. 


Change is Coming – listen to Peter, Paul and Mary

The times certainly are changing.

From 1965.

And from 1995

The lyrics have never been more appropriate,particularly the one about Senators and Congressmen.

 

Come gather ’round people 
Wherever you roam 
And admit that the waters 
Around you have grown 
And accept it that soon 
You’ll be drenched to the bone 

If your time to you 
Is worth savin’ 
Then you better start swimmin’ 
Or you’ll sink like a stone 
For the times they are a-changin’. 

Come writers and critics 
Who prophesize with your pen 
And keep your eyes wide 
The chance won’t come again 
And don’t speak too soon 
For the wheel’s still in spin 

And there’s no tellin’ who 
That it’s namin’ 
For the loser now 
Will be later to win 
For the times they are a-changin’. 

Come senators, congressmen 
Please heed the call 
Don’t stand in the doorway 
Don’t block up the hall 
For he that gets hurt 
Will be he who has stalled 

There’s a battle outside 
And it is ragin’ 
It’ll soon shake your windows 
And rattle your walls 
For the times they are a-changin’. 

Come mothers and fathers 
Throughout the land 
And don’t criticize 
What you can’t understand 
Your sons and your daughters 
Are beyond your command 

Your old road is 
Rapidly agin’ 
Please get out of the new one 
If you can’t lend your hand 
For the times they are a-changin’. 

 

Come gather ’round peopleWherever you roamAnd admit that the watersAround you have grownAnd accept it that soonYou’ll be drenched to the boneIf your time to youIs worth savin’Then you better start swimmin’Or you’ll sink like a stoneFor the times they are a-changin’.
Come writers and criticsWho prophesize with your penAnd keep your eyes wideThe chance won’t come againAnd don’t speak too soonFor the wheel’s still in spinAnd there’s no tellin’ whoThat it’s namin’For the loser nowWill be later to winFor the times they are a-changin’.
Come senators, congressmenPlease heed the callDon’t stand in the doorwayDon’t block up the hallFor he that gets hurtWill be he who has stalledThere’s a battle outsideAnd it is ragin’It’ll soon shake your windowsAnd rattle your wallsFor the times they are a-changin’.
Come mothers and fathersThroughout the landAnd don’t criticizeWhat you can’t understandYour sons and your daughtersAre beyond your commandYour old road isRapidly agin’Please get out of the new oneIf you can’t lend your handFor the times they are a-changin’.
The line it is drawnThe curse it is castThe slow one nowWill later be fastAs the present nowWill later be pastThe order isRapidly fadin’And the first one nowWill later be lastFor the times they are a-changin’.

 

Great explanation for how pCell works and how it might change everything – wireless power transmission

Red sky 

→ How pCell Works, And Why It’s A Bigger Deal Than Anyone Realizes
[Via Marco.org]

The more I learn about pCell, the more interesting it sounds. It still blows my mind that such a concept can work at scale at all.

[More]

The pCell could do more than help cell phones.

WARNING— the article has equations and matrix multiplication!

I skipped them and went right to the conclusions. Wireless power transmission to single points,such as an electric car, would change everything.

Will it happen? Could be exciting.

Third industrial revolution? It is bigger than that

Cash 

Why I’m Bullish About the Third Industrial Revolution
[Via Big Think]

This is a terrific time to be an entrepreneur.  Entrepreneurs succeed when the rules of the game are changing.  Entrepreneurs thrive in a moment of uncertainty and relative instability.  Entrepreneurs exploit the changing rules. 

[More]

He is looking at this too small – as a way to make a lot of money. That is an important part of what is happening but is only a small part.

I’ve been working on a report regarding the coming abundance fostered by this revolution. There will likely be somuch wealth created that the very idea of money becomes hazy.

It may cost less to send a pound into space than it currently costs to send it across the country. We will produce more metal resources than exist on the entire surface of the Earth. We will have access to more water than in all the oceans, to unimaginable amounts of power. 

We will be as different from where we are today as the hunter-gatherers were with the farmers. The difference will be as fundamental and as epoch marking.

Making money is thinking too small. But it is a point.

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