The rapid drop in intelligent Congressional speech

The changing complexity of congressional speech
[Via Sunlight Foundation]

Congress now speaks at almost a full grade level lower than it did just seven years ago, with the most conservative members of Congress speaking on average at the lowest grade level, according to a new Sunlight Foundation analysis of the Congressional Record using Capitol Words.

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The Constitution is written at 17.8 grade level. The Declaration of INdependence is at 15.1. Even the Gettysburg Address is at 11.2.

Congress now speaks at a 10.6 grade level.

In 2005, Republicans were the most eloquent speakers in Congress, as they had been for years. Their speeches were greater than the 11.6 grade level, better than the Democrats.

Within 4 years there was a tremendous drop in the GOP speech patterns. They had dropped to below 10.6 levels.

NewImage

The Democrats stayed close to their normal patterns, not dropping below 11 until 2011.

The Republicans went from the highest grade levels in Congress to the lowest in just 4 years. Of the 20 lowest by grade level, 18 are Republicans.

Of course, what does the data actually mean? In the US, the average American reads at between an 8th and 9th grade level.

So are the legislators dumbing down their words  because they are dumber or are they trying to be better communicators?

I imagine only history will be able to separate out those two possibilities. I go for better communication because many are now having their words heard directly rather than filtered through the media and dumbed down there.

Tech CEOs say dumb things because …

Why Tech CEOs Seem So Dumb. (It’s a trick question.)
[Via Dave Winer's linkblog feed]

Why Tech CEOs Seem So Dumb. (It’s a trick question.)

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Nice to have some recent examples of really dumb things said by the 50-something leaders of tech companies.

Here is how Steve Jobs put it and he is exactly right:

“I have my own theory about why the decline happens at companies like IBM or Microsoft. The company does a great job, innovates and becomes a monopoly or close to it in some field, and then the quality of the product becomes less important. The product starts valuing the great salesmen, because they’re the ones who can move the needle on revenues, not the product engineers and designers. So the salespeople end up running the company.”

Thus we have the head of Time-Warner cable who does not understand Air Play and also displays his ignorance of Apple TV, something that could potentially directly compete with cable.

I would go as far as to say do not invest in any tech company whose head is not ‘of’ the company. Ballmer is a sales guy. Tim Cook is a manufacturing guy. Which one really has a firm understanding of the tech underpinnings of the company?

I’d go with the guy who really understands how the things are built over the guy who really only understands how to market and sell the thing.

Dinosaur farts had no lasting detrimental effect on the climate

dinosaurby IvanWalsh.com

Grats! A new wingnut zombie lie is born
[Via The Zingularity]

Let’s follow the arc of just one wingnut whopper. It starts as a seed in the form of a flatly untrue headline by none other than Fox News shouting out ‘scientists say dinos farted themselves to extinction’. Ahem:

(PZ) — But the paper makes no such claim, instead suggesting that the mass of herbivores during the Mesozoic would have made a substantial, but stable, contribution of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere that may have been partially responsible for the warmer, moister climate of the era …

But the truth doesn’t matter, facts are so unimportant we can’t even stop to check; we are witnessing wingnuts getting busy, hotly engrossed in zombie baby-making! Dozens of news sites get sucked in. Next up RushBo takes the false headline and pollinates it, mocking climate scientists for ‘claiming dino’s farted themselves to extinction’. Worldnut Daily and other large sites soil themselves congratulating Rush for ripping scientists who say ‘dinosaurs farted themselves to extinction,’ and throw in some zippy one liners.

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It is much easier to lie if you never know the truth. So Fox starts it off by being misleading and it goes from there.

And people like to remember lies that fit what they want to believe. So it becomes easy to continue to not acknowledge climate change by believing lies about climate scientists.

This zombie lie will continue to plague us for years, being a favorite of those denialists who do not acknowledge climate change.

A few more charts to consider – I wish we had just done what Reagan did

Public-sector job losses: An unprecedented drag on the recovery | Economic Policy Institute
[Via Economic Policy Institute]

Since the recovery from the Great Recession officially began in June 2009, private-sector jobs are up by 2.8 million, but public-sector jobs (the combined employment in federal, state, and local governments) are down by 584,000. The figure below compares trends in public-sector employment in the last four recoveries. The current recovery is the only one that has seen public-sector losses over its first 31 months.

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This chart is telling:

NewImage

Funny how recessions dealt with by Republicans see increases in public employee employment at a rate to decrease the overall unemployment levels.

But in this recession, the GOP has made sure that we continue to see large numbers of public employees put out of work. The rhetoric of their leadership continues to demonize any public employee.

They have made sure there is no recovery seen by public employees only for this recession. In the ones overseen by Reagan and Bush they made sure the recovery of public jobs rapidly returned to previous levels.

Funny how politics is more important  today than helping Americans. At least when it is a Democrat in the White House.

If they had just allowed the same rates of employment as Reagan did, there would be about 1.7 million more jobs today.

This would have reduced the unemployment rate 1.5 points to below 7. That is where we would be if everyone cared about jobs in the same non-partisan manner they did in 1981.

And I’d rather the GOP today just followed the government spending pathway that Reagan oversaw:

spending

Yep, the socialist Obama is seeing much less government spending than that spendthrift Reagan.

More government spending, more public employees and lower unemployment if we had just done what Reagan did.

It seems that Reagan would be too liberal for the current GOP. Wow!

The Bishops are going after the Girl Scouts

church of the beatitudesby upyernoz

Catholic bishops to scrutinize Girl Scouts –
[Via The Washington Post]

The nation’s Roman Catholic bishops are reviewing the church’s long-standing ties to the Girl Scouts of the USA after complaints that some of that venerable organization’s programs might contradict church teachings on contraception and abortion.

The inquiry by the Catholic bishops has been ongoing for two years and was prompted by persistent reports, circulated on the Internet and by some social conservatives, that the Girl Scouts of the USA has ties to Planned Parenthood or, for example, endorses material on sexuality that the church would not approve.

Girl Scout leaders have denied the claims, but the bishops decided to continue their inquiry. In a March 28 letter to his fellow bishops, Bishop Kevin C. Rhoades, chairman of the Committee on Laity, Marriage, Family Life and Youth, wrote that “important questions still remain and need to be examined.”

[More]

Apparently if you are friends with people who work with other people that the Bishops don’t like, they can cut you off. Almost  20% of the Girl Scouts are Catholic. Are they going to expell them if they stay in the group?

But there is a strong push among the bishops to ensure that no church organization has even remote connections to doctrinally problematic groups.

They ignored child abuse of boys and girls for decades but they have the moral authority to investigate the Girl Scouts to make sure they are not working with the those who are disreputable? They want to create a purity barrier that prevents any interactions with “doctrinally problematic groups”  even as they protected child molesters?

When a group like the Girl Scouts is to be investigated because they are not pure enough and may have connections with “doctrinally problematic groups,” I have to wonder how the Bishops would have felt about a certain great teacher from 2000 years ago – one who ate, drank and worked with the very sort of people the Bishops wish to purify themselves from?

The founder of their religion consorted with the disreputable His whole adult life. He preached the benefits of doing just that rather than creating a purity barrier. He chided the Pharisees for using doctrine and dogma to cut off the “doctrinally problematic groups”.

Perhaps the Bishops should reread Luke 18:9-14. Or perhaps Matthew  9:10-13. Jesus consorted with sinners in order to save them. He did not cast them away and remain ‘pure’ by separating himself from them. That is what the Pharisees did.

Perhaps the Bishops should reread the Sermon on the Mount (Matthew 5, 6 and 7; Luke 6), particularly the part about motes, beams  and eyes. Or reread the two Great Commandments, with the second one being restated many, many times in the gospels in order to drive the point home.

“Thou shalt love thy neighbour as thyself.”  Whether Christ was the Son of God or not is an unfathomable question to prove. But he was one of the greatest teachers in human history. He provided a way around the revenge-oriented approaches so many religions take, especially the Abrahamic ones. They project a harsh world – an eye for an eye – one where everyone is constantly at each other’s throats and strong efforts must be made to show the outward purity of each group, the righteousness of its cause. One can only kill one’s enemies if one is wholly separate from them.

And the warfare can never stop until all of one’s enemies are dead. The entire religion becomes one of separating people into bucket : those like us – the pure, the righteous; and all the rest – the sinners. Purity and righteousness become a public display to demonstrate which group one belongs to.

But Jesus taught a way to short circuit that by using the approach of the Golden Rule to eventually suck out the poison that the other religions had. The world is a reciprocal place, where my actions produce actions in others. If I treat others as myself, they will eventually treat me the same way.

We are all one.

We are not separate. Instead we are the same. The lack of purity is something we all share, a recognition that we are all humans trying to survive in the real world and worry about what happens next. Jesus taught that the only way to make it through is not so separate into a bunch of pure buckets – all fighting over who is most pure and who is not – but to coalesce into one group of all humanity that recognizes our faults and tries to do better – to ourselves and to others.

I think the Bishops are falling away from the path Jesus taught. They are creating a purity approach, where they separate themselves wholly from those who are not as pure as they and then destroy those enemies as quickly as possible. Anyone who is not with them 100% becomes an other. They seek a small Church of pure, righteous followers rather than a larger Church of believers and sinners. They seem to be following the Old Testament teachings more than they are following teachings of the Gospels.

I think they will fail in their efforts. I think Jesus would approve of that failure.


The TSA could have killed her

body scannerby gyro2

Savannah Barry, Diabetic Teen, Blames TSA For Broken Insulin Pump (VIDEO)
[Via Huffington Post]

Savannah Barry, a 16-year-old diabetic, is criticizing the TSA after an agent incorrectly instructed her to walk through a body scanner despite the fact she was wearing an expensive insulin pump. The pump stopped working shortly after the security check.

[More]

The pump is not supposed to be put through the body scanner because it can stop working – a life threatening event.

But the TSA officer told her it was safe to do so. Idiot. And not trained properly.

The report said the TSA went  off the deep end when they saw her carry on with needles and juice containers.

Putting 18 month olds on the no fly list and destroying important medical devices. All part of the TSA.

And of course this shows that those body scanners are not totally safe for everyone, at the very least.

Improving working conditions now seen as a plus

Foxconn and Apple will share costs to improve Chinese factories
[Via AppleInsider]

Apple and Foxconn will share the costs associated with improving labor conditions at factories in China where devices like the iPhone and iPad are built.

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Making the working conditions better for CHinese workers is seen as a competitive advantage by Apple and Fozconn. They will be able to hire a better employee than others.

Actually increasing worker’s pay is now a good thing. I wonder when this innovation will make it to the US?

Will this 18-month kid ever be able to fly like an regular person?

TSA Removes 18-Month Old Baby From Plane
[Via American Times]

The new face of terror. Or something.

You have to hand it to the TSA.

When they discovered that eighteen-month-old Riyanna was on the no-fly list (or at least someone with the same name was) they didn’t bat an eye. They didn’t stop and think about whether a one-and-a-half year old posed a security threat, or whether it could possibly be a case of mistaken identity. There’s no time to think in these tense situations.

No sir, the TSA agents at Ft. Lauderdale airport did what needed to be done and pulled that terror-baby off the plane.

[More]

Apparently once on the no-fly list you can not get off. If so, this poor little girl will never be able to fly without being hassled by the TSA.

We used to watch in horror when a movie showed a Nazi asking a person for their papers in order to board a train. At least the Nazis did provide papers that allowed an individual to move about. If you had your papers, you at least had some comfort.

We now pull babies off of planes without the benefit of any paper at all. The TSA has become the closest thing we have to fascism in the US.

Bet that gets me on a no-fly list.

Because Wall Street is neither rational nor efficient viz-a-viz Apple

How is AMZN worth 13 AAPLs?
[Via Brainstorm Tech: Technology blogs, news and analysis from Fortune Magazine » Apple 2.0]

There seems to be a growing disconnect in Wall Street’s valuations

Click to enlarge. Source: Jeffrey Forsberg

FORTUNE — I know that comparisons, as Shakespeare’s Dogberry put it, are supposed to be odorous, but this one is beginning to stink.

How can Apple (AAPL), with $110 billion in the bank, annual sales of $140 billion and earnings that nearly double every year, be valued so much lower than Amazon (AMZN), which has $6 billion in the bank, sales of $50 billion and earnings that fell 35% last quarter?

This is a question that reader Jeff Forsberg has been asking for nearly a year. On Friday he sent the chart above, an updated version of the coiled spring visual metaphor he introduced last June, when Amazon’s price-to-earnings ratio was 81 and Apple’s was 16.

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After a year, Apple, with great and increasing profits, is worth even less than Amazon, which has falling earnings. There is no good fundamental reasons for this.

Amazon is viewed as some sort of growth stock , even though it is not really growing, while Apple is viewed like a utility, even though it is growing substantially. And has been for many quarters.

The stock market is betting that Apple’s earnings will only grow roughly 12% next year. Apple earned $26 billion last year. So Wall Street is valuing  Apple to make an extra $3 billion in 2012.

Yet in the first quarter of 2012, it increases just its cash hoard by over $16 billion. In one quarter, it made 5 times more just in cash than Wall Street is now predicting it will make for the next year. It is very likely that the simple interest on its cash from 2012 will be larger than Wall Street thinks its entire earning will be.

There is no sane or fundamental reason for Apple to be where it is right now. At least in a rational and efficient market.

The stock market does not understand Apple

Back to the balance sheet
[Via asymco]

I first noted a correlation between Apple’s share price and its balance sheet a year ago. In February, when I last checked, Apple’s share price was priced nearly at 4.6 times its cash value. The stock has had a brief rally but has returned to the trend line it’s had since late 2008.

[More]

Warren Buffett this weekend explained that Wall Street just doe not understand Apple or other 21st century companies.

  • “I would not be at all surprised to see them be worth a lot more money 10 years from now but I would not buy either one of them.”
  • “I sure as hell wouldn’t short them either.”
  • “We couldn’t predict what would happen to Apple 10 years ago and we can’t predict what will happen to it 10 years from now.”
  • “The chances of being way wrong in IBM (IBM) are probably less, at least for us, than the chances of being way wrong in Google or Apple.”
  • “I just don’t know how to value them.”

The inability of the stock market to fairly value Apple on any fundamental sense is an easy proof of the inefficiency of the market. It is not perfect, especially with disruptive companies such as Apple.

The figure above shows the price of Apple correlates with the amount of  cash it has on hand. The important aspect of this is that there is no fundamental reason for why this should be. None. An efficient stock market should not value a company based on this measure.

Then we have this, from the same article. It looks at fundamentals and shows just how far off from expected they are for Apple:

 

The P/E ratio is supposed to be a measure of the future value of the company. Amazon has a P/E ratio of about 190. The market expects its stock price to increase a lot. Apple’s P/E ratio is about the same as a utility. The stock market does not expect Apple’s earnings in the future to grow much.

The PEG ratio is a somewhat crude measure of how efficient the market values a company. The P/E ratio should be a measure of growth. If we divide that by growth, we get the PEG ratio. A value of 1 indicates a close approximation of future growth with real growth.

Apple over the last 5 years has never been close to a ratio of 1. The market has substantially undervalued Apple and not properly predicted growth. Apple is almost ridiculously undervalued right now with a PEG ratio less than 0.2

Perhaps one reason it is worth going into debt to get a college degree

Underemployment rate of workers age 16 and older by education, 1994-2012 |
[Via State of Working America]

NewImage

Updated April 23, 2012 This National Jobs chart is an Economic Indicator, updated when new data is released. Data is current as of April 23, 2012.

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The rates for college graduates are only about 1% higher than the overall rate. But if they have a High School degree, the rate more than doubles.

And it is worse the less education they have. College graduates are underemployed. So they might not be making a great wage right now but they are taking jobs away from the less educated, substantially increasing their employment rates.


Kindle saturated its market?

Kindle Fire shipments drop sharply as Apple’s iPad takes 68% tablet share
[Via AppleInsider]

Shipments of Android-based tablets including Amazon’s Kindle Fire saw a “steep drop” in the first quarter of 2012, allowing Apple’s iPad to grow to 68 percent of tablets shipped worldwide.

[More]

It seems likely that all those who want a Kindle Fire already bought them and thus the sales plummeted.

Of course they will have to offer a cheaper price. But it will also be a noticeably cheaper device.

And, I think, Apple can reduce the price of its entry level iPad if it ever needs to.

One cent for NASA

We need to dream again.

[yputube=http://youtu.be/Fl07UfRkPas]

“How much would you pay for the Universe?”

The current budget for NASA – estimated to be $17 billion in 2012 – is 0.48% of the total US budget. This is a lower percentage for NASA since 1959!

NASA has not had 1% since 1993, when its budget peaked at $19.6 billion. Both Democrats and Republicans bear the blame for this.

But they could shoulder the benefits by simply raising NASA’s budget to what it was in 1993. No need to dream of  60s era levels of funding at 4% or higher. Just 1%.

It would be great to live in a country where we could all dream about the future, instead of grub around for the leavings allowed us.



This’ll make the olympics really fun – surface-to-air missiles on the tops of houses

East London residents warned of surface-to-air missiles sited on their roofs for the Olympics
[Via Boing Boing]

Residents of a gated community in east London got Ministry of Defence leaflets through their doors advising them that their roofs might be commandeers for surface-to-air missiles during the London Olympics this summer. The MoD assured them that the missiles on their roof “will only be authorised for active use following specific orders from the highest levels of government in response to a confirmed and extreme security threat”. Gosh, the Olypmics sure are wonderful.

[More]

Maybe at some point we should just let these games die a quiet death. At least the way they are currently run.

Pilot error combined with poor user interface design?

air franceby abdallahh

Air France Flight 447: ‘Damn it, we’re going to crash’. (A
[Via Dave Winer's linkblog feed]

Air France Flight 447: ‘Damn it, we’re going to crash’. (A tragic, deadly story of UI design.)

[More]

It is a really sad story but one that seem to come up every so often with the fly-by-wire- planes – figuring out what is going on in an emergency sometimes takes the technological benefits past the point where they work well in informing the pilots.

In this crash, it appears that the pilots were not getting the right feedback information to inform them of what was actually happening – one of the pilots apparently tried to lift the nose of the plane so high that it stalled.

In an older plane, there would have been many obvious feedbacks to inform the pilots of what each was doing but these new planes make it very hard to see what the other pilots are doing. So if one makes a huge mistake, the others have a hard time figuring it out.

And even when they did start to figure it out, the computer’s actions made them stop. It stopped working and blanked out screens rather than give ‘incorrect’ data to the crew. This is not likely to be helpful in an emergency like this.

Because what happened is that the stall warnings stopped also because the data was all messed up. When the pilots then actually did the right thing, the computer understood what was happening, feed the data back and the stall warnings started again.

So they did what anyone would do it their action seemed to cause a stall warning to start again – they stopped doing it, even though it was correct.

By the time the captain figured it out, it was too late. He pushed down to gain speed. But, because the other pilot was still pulling up – and the manner of the side joystick prevented the others from seeing this – the computer ‘averaged’ their dual inputs.  This was fatal as one pilot was absolutely right and the other was absolutely wrong.

Many user interfaces are designed well but the outlier behaviors – something every programmer knows and why beta tests are done – really determine the robustness of the interface.

It certainly seems here that – while pilot error may be the underlying mistake – the way the controls were designed contributed a lot to the inability of the crew to correct a mistake.

I expect that Air France bears a lot of responsibility here but it seems to me that some tweaks in the Airbus UI could be productive.

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