Huntsman’s chances

by cwwycoff1

Jim Huntsman has been getting a lot of press lately for acknowledging climate change and evolution. He said:

“When we take a position that isn’t willing to embrace evolution, when we take a position that basically runs counter to what 98 of 100 climate scientists have said, what the National Academy of Science has said about what is causing climate change and man’s contribution to it, I think we find ourselves on the wrong side of science, and, therefore, in a losing position,” Huntsman told ABC’s “This Week.”

He responded to questions regarding Bachmann’s statement to bring gas prices down under $2:

I just don’t know what world that comment would come from, you know?” he said. “We live in the real world. It’s grounded in reality. And gas prices just aren’t going to rebound like that.

He also Tweeted: I believe in evolution and trust scientists on global warming. Call me crazy.

Well, he must be crazy because his message is finding absolutely no resonance with Republicans in Iowa. Here are some numbers from a recent poll conducted BEFORE he spoke those recent words.

Only 13% have a favorable opinion of Huntsman. He is the only Republican candidate under 40% favorable. IN election questions, Perry comes out on top and Not Sure beats Huntsman. Heck, Rick Santorum beats Huntsman. Huntsman loses by even more if Palin does not run.

And then the really interesting numbers. Only 21% acknowledge global warming, 35% acknowledge evolution and only 48% acknowledge that President Obama was born in the US.

The only saving grace is that the number of people polled was small and the margin of error is large – almost 6%. And most of Huntsman’s problems may be that few people know him. He had the highest percentage of “Not Sure” – 46% so the data may just be in error.

But it might also indicate an antipathy of people to someone claiming such connection to scientific reality. Because those that don;t like him, really don’t like him. 40% of those polled had an unfavorable opinion of him.

These numbers are no really definitive but they should certainly be a little alarming to Huntsman. Being the only Republican candidate to espouse views in common with scientific research may not have won him many friends.

At least in Iowa.

Cranks get going with wild theories about earthquakes

by ollesvensson

I get email
[Via Pharyngula]

So I hear you East-coasters had a little earthquake. I grew up near volcanoes, so I’m not too impressed, but OK, a little shakeup is interesting, and fortunately it sounds like no one was hurt.

But wouldn’t you know it, the crack team of cranks who have my email address reacted promptly with an explanation.

these earthquakes are a result of us sucking the oil from the earth, oil is supposed to be used as a lubricant for the earth not to fill our cars, I imagine these things will get worse and more common

There you go. It’s all everyone’s fault for driving around in cars and flying in airplanes.

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I am glad I do not get that sort of crank email. It’s right up there with hollow Earth theories.

The comments indicate it came from Youtube originally. Youtube commenters are the AOL of  commenters.(Read this article from 1995 to get some context for AOL derision.)

Mann found innocent, again

Climate researcher Michael Mann cleared, again
[Via Freethought Blogs]

Paleoclimate record for last 1000 years by Mann et al

I know Mike Mann, one of the progenitors of the Hockey Stick shown above. I consider him a friend and one hell of an expert to run things past. So I was happy to see this:

Finding no “evidence of research misconduct,” the Arlington, Virginia-based National Science Foundation closed its inquiry into Mann, according to an Aug. 15 report from the inspector general for the U.S. agency. Pennsylvania State University, where Mann is a professor of meteorology, exonerated him in February of suppressing or falsifying data, deleting e- mails and misusing privileged information.

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Mann has been found innocent of any wrongdoing so many times that I have lost count. And his hockey stick model, first proposed so many years ago, continues to be supported by new studies all the time.

Under witch hunt, you will find Mann. It does demonstrate that the monied interests have still not taken over our sciences or our examination of the world around us. If they ever did, you could count our civilization at an end.

Scientists need communcations training

On scientific writing
[Via Field of Science Combined Feed]

In science, communication, both oral and written, is a critical skill. I know the stereotypical scientist is some extremely awkward asocial geek or nerd (at least when they aren’t maniacally evil). Of course this is not true¹. Although an argument can be made that scientists are not necessarily good at communicating with the general public, to be a successful scientist you need to be able to discuss your work and the work of others and to write papers/grants/etc effectively. Unfortunately scientific communication is skill that is often developed on the fly.

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Communicating is crucial for any researcher. No communications, no science. It is that simple.

Researchers learn how to communicate pretty much on the job, by trial and error. as with anything, some are naturals and most simply get by.

But getting by is no longer good enough. we need scientists who can communicate on levels never before needed and to groups seldom ever engaged.

So, some part of their training needs to deal with communicating – with their peers and with society.

I’ve put together a communications class and will be talking with schools about implementing it. I’m also going to put together podcasts to deal with this topic.

xkcd: Explaining the earthquake in Virginia in a world of social media

xkcd: Seismic Waves
[Via xkcd]

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Staying current and so true. People in NY got tweets about the earthquake seconds before they felt it themselves. So phones may have gone down but the internet still worked. As did text messaging.

A good reason to keep a land line as they were still working.

And here are some funny tweets about the quake.

pattonoswalt: “Not to panic anyone in NYC, but a screaming John Cusack just drove by in a limo that was missing a door.”

politicoroger: “We wouldn’t be having earthquakes like this if Hillary were president.”

dylanmatt: “In retrospect, I resorted to cannibalism rather fast after the earthquake.”

Senate meets for the first time outside of capital

by blueprnt12

Senate Convenes Pro Forma Session Outside Capitol After Earthquake – NYTimes.com
[Via The Caucus]

For a pro forma session of the Senate, it was anything but routine.

After an earthquake rocked the Capitol on Tuesday afternoon and caused the evacuation of the centuries-old building, the Senate was forced to convene a few blocks away in a remarkable off-site session that essentially served as a dry run for procedures put in place after the Sept. 11 attacks.

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And it lasted 22 seconds, shorter than the earthquake lasted.

Even though the Senate is on vacation, it has been holding pro forma meetings every 3 days to prevent recess appointments by the President. Normally, only a single Senator shows up, opens the session reads something and then closes it.

But since the earthquake caused the evacuation of the Capitol, the meeting had to be held elsewhere.

Learn something new everyday. Here is how the historic session was described:

Mr. Coons sat at a plain, short folding table with the Senate seal pinned to a curtain behind him. The legislative clerk, journal clerk and parliamentarian sat at tables on either side. Court reporters were also present. The  gavel he used came from a staffer in the nondescript postal building, who said it was a gift someone had given him two decades earlier.

Third largest quake ever recorded on the East Coast

by dbking

Ten Things You Should Know About the East Coast Quake
[Via Discover Magazine | RSS]

(1) First of all, in case you didn’t feel it, a magnitude 5.8 earthquake struck Mineral, Virginia at 1:51 pm.

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This was the largest earthquake to hit the East Coast sine the 19th century. Wow. We get pretty blase´ about earthquakes out here but that was a pretty rare event.

This is a part of the country not prepared for quakes and could suffer some substantial damage with a quake only slightly bigger.

Yeah! Denialist is now officially a real word

by Johan J.Ingles-Le Nobel

W00t! The OED Catches Up With the Rest of Us
[Via Discoblog]

Last week, the new edition of Concise Oxford English Dictionary—the user-friendly version of the massive, encyclopedic guide to English—debuted with 400 new words, many of them not unknown to those of us here on teh Interwebs. Here’s a selection of the goodies:

cyberbullying: n. the use of electronic communication to bully a person, typically by sending messages of an intimidating or threatening nature.

denialist: n. a person who refuses to admit the truth of a concept or proposition that is supported by the majority of scientific or historical evidence.

domestic goddess: n. informal a woman with exceptional domestic skills, especially cookery.

jeggings: pl. n. tight-fitting stretch trousers for women, styled to resemble a pair of denim jeans.

retweet: v. (on the social networking service Twitter) repost or forward (a message posted by another user). n. a reposted or forwarded message on Twitter.

sexting: n. informal the sending of sexually explicit photographs or messages via mobile phone.

woot: exclam. informal (especially in electronic communication) used to express elation, enthusiasm, or triumph.

One quibble: we would have included the alternate spelling of “woot,” the alphanumerical mashup “w00t.” As the evolution of the term from

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And a key aspect of a denialist, as opposed to a skeptic, is that they really can not ever admit the truth of a concept because to do so would undermine their view of the world around, disrupting so many rules of thumb and heuristics as to make living quite difficult.

A fundamentalist who believes in the inerrancy of the Bible has to deny evolution because to do so would strike at the very foundations of their religious beliefs.

This is not a skeptical view but a denialist one. A skeptic is not afraid of the ramifications of the concept on their own view of the world. A denialist is.

Zardoz as a made-up 8-bit computer game

8-bit Zardoz
[Via Boing Boing]

As I somehow missed this fantastic intro to a nonexistent 8-bit Zardoz game last year, perhaps you did, too! Animator Nick Criscuolo writes: “I realize the audio isn’t entirely 8bit, more like 8/16 bit. Maybe more like Amiga game music than Atari or Nintendo. I just couldn’t imagine it without the Zardoz voice.” [VIDEO LINK. Submitted by jeans]

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Zardoz is one of those really bad movies that actually sustained deeper narrative examination.

At least for a certain subset of humanity.

Directed by the same man whose Point Blank re-imagined killers, whose Excalibur re-imagined King Arthur, whose Deliverance re-imagined canoeing in the boonies, and whose Hope & Glory re-imagined WWII.

How in the world was he able to make movies like these and what sort of world actually released them? One very different from the rebooted pablum of sequels we see today.

But what happens when slow-witted men are firmly persuaded that they know already, without a shadow of doubt, what is laid before them?

Tolstoy on Difficulty, 1897
[Via Boing Boing]

A timeless quote from Tolstoy: “The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of doubt, what is laid before him.”

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I fear there are too many slow-witted men, and women,  who fit the latter category. And they seem to mainly gravitate towards politics and middle management ;-)

Eve was made from a penile bone, not a rib

NCBI ROFL: What did God do with Adam’s penis bone?
[Via Discoblog]

Congenital human baculum deficiency: the generative bone of Genesis 2:21-23.

“Another genetic condition, extending to 100% of human males, is the congenital lack of a baculum. Whereas most mammals (including common species such as dogs and mice) and most other primates (excepting spider monkeys) have a penile bone, human males lack this bone and must rely on fluid hydraulics to maintain erections. This is not an insignificant bone. The baculum of a large dog can be 10 cm long x 1.3 cm wide x 1 cm thick… Human bacula have been reported, usually in association with other congenital diseases or penile abnormalities.

One of the creation stories in Genesis may be an explanatory myth wherein the Bible attempts to find a cause for why human males lack this particular bone. Our opinion is that Adam did not lose a rib in the creation of Eve. Any ancient Israelite (or for that matter, any American child) would be expected to know that there is an equal (and even) number of ribs in both men and women. Moreover, ribs lack any intrinsic generative capacity. We think it is far more probable that it was …

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Interesting take on how the Hebrew term for penile bone or baculum became a rib. And what they thought the raphé was a consequence of.

Makes more sense than a rib.

First we lost our penile spines. Then we lost our baculums. No wonder men’s sex organs are such floppy things and why Viagra is sometimes needed.

We have to do everything with plumbing and dexterity rather than with bones and spines.

“Stop trying to make iPads. Make markets.”

→ Disruptive
[Via Marco.org]

Patrick Rhone:

Just like the iPad created a whole option, and thus, new market (the one you keep calling the “tablet market”), the only way to compete is not to get into that market but to create a whole new one. One that will suck the life out of the iPad market. Something so disruptive, so mind blowing, so magical that, like the iPad, people will form lines around the block for months to get it.

Excellent article on what other manufacturers need to do to stand a chance against the iPad.

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I’m not the only one who sees what the problem is. And Patrick has some helpful advice.

Others build faster horses. Apple built an automobile.

by FotoSleuth

Why can’t Windows PCs catch up to the MacBook Air?
[Via Macworld]

The PC world is buzzing lately about how laptop manufacturers are struggling to compete with Apple’s MacBook Air, which has exploded in popularity since the introduction of the third-generation model in 2010. This year’s fourth-gen update is proving to be the must-have laptop of the year. For every laptop manufacturer not named “Apple,” the race is on to make new super-thin and super-light laptops. Intel calls them Ultrabooks, and the name is catching on, despite being sort of silly.

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People forget that Mac has a history of creating a novel product with problems and then working hard to fix the problems.

Apple knew what it wanted with the Macbook Air – a low priced, light computer with long battery life. To accomplish this it first threw out all sorts of legacy parts  – such as disk drives – to lower weight. It used solid state hard drives not only because they were fast but also light.

But this made for an expensive computer and even though people loved the computer, it was not a major seller.

When HP was confronted by this problem with its Touchpad, it threw in the towel in a couple of months. Not Apple. Iy knew why it was making the laptop in the first place and had answered all the questions needed to sell 21st century products.

HP, Samsung and others really do not know why they are selling their products. They are simply doing whatever Apple does. So when their product does not  magically do what Apple does, they bail. Dell did. Sony did. Samsung did. HP did.

Apple continued to refine its laptop, finally getting the computer it was trying for the first time. And now it is flying off the shelves and everyone is trying to catch up to the first version.

Without knowing why.

As Henry Ford said, “If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.” Others keep building faster horses. Apple builds an automobile.

By the time others have built their first automobile, Apple has built a Ferrari, for the same price.

10 years ago, HP began its descent as Apple began its ascent

[Crossposted at SpreadingScience]

by jurvetson

HP’s Decade-Long Departure
[Via HarvardBusiness.org]

HP’s sudden departure from a business model that has sustained the company since inception is symptomatic of the passing of an era. Yesterday HP announced that it would exit the PC and tablet computer business, focusing on higher-margin “strategic priorities of cloud, solutions and software with an emphasis on enterprise, commercial and government markets.” In other words, HP is fleeing upmarket, away from a core that it will abandon to device makers.

HP management conceded that the disruptive impact of the iPad forced their hand but that hand was already quite weak from a decade of over-serving the market. The last decade offered plenty of opportunities for incumbent PC companies to adjust to the realities of mobility. However only one computer maker made the transition.

Why is that?

Consider how HP and Apple faced the changes in the PC market almost exactly a decade ago.

•On September 3, 2001, HP announced that they would acquire Compaq.
•On October 23, 2001, Apple announced the iPod.

The rest, as they say, is history.

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In his classic 1996 paper, Increasing Returns and the New World of Business, – published the same year Apple bought NeXt and started its drive to success – Arthur discussed the difference between decreasing returns seen in 20th Century companies and the increasing returns seen for the newer companies. I’ll talk more about this paper later but here we have a perfect example of a company living by diminishing returns and one living by increasing returns.

He ends the paper with a series of  questions for managers. Think about how Apple answered these questions versus how HP answered them and you will get an idea of why Apple succeeded and HP failed based on where they were 10 years ago.

Do I understand the feedbacks in my market? Which ecologies am I in? Do I have the resources to play? What games are coming next?

HP failed at properly answering each of these questions, believing it was operating as a 20th Century company in a 21st century Market. HP never really presented a compelling case for why its technology was better than a competitor’s. They provided commodities for people to buy.

Apple created the iMac, an all-in-one computer like no others that provided integration of new technologies like no other –  it got rid of the floopy drive and added USB, something HP, or any other PC maker, would not do for years.

Apple created the iPod, an MP3 player like no others that provided integration of new technologies like no other – it created an ecosystem of a computer and Apple’s iTunes, something HP, or any other high tech company, have been able to recreate.

Apple created the iPhone, a smartphone like no others that provided integration of new technologies like no other – it created an ecosystem of a computer, Apple’s iTunes and the App store, something HP, or any other high tech company, have been able to recreate.

Apple created the iPad, a tablet like no others that provided integration of new technologies like no other – it created an ecosystem of a computer, Apple’s iTunes and the App store combined with a novel used design, something HP, or any other high tech company, have been able to recreate.

Apple took 5 years before the first real product of its strategy arrived. HP canned its ‘strategy’ after a year.

Apple works to provide the best experience for its customers and will take years to really get it right. Everyone else just seems to push out stuff and hope. Thus why HP is throwing in the towel and Samsung is seeing its products given away.

Microsoft and Google both look for hardware makers to create their own ecosystems of mobile devices and software.

See a pattern here. Apple deeply understood the feedbacks; it not only knew which ecology it was in, it went so far as to create new ones; it hoarded its resources until it had enough strength to play; and it has been on top of what is coming next, riding the bleeding edge of high tech as it focusses on what the market wants.

The rest of each industry – HP, Samsung, Google, Microsoft, HTC, etc. – have been reacting to Apple. They have not been driving their own vision of the future. They have failed to answer the critical questions.

They do not understand how much things have changed. The asteroid has his the planet but the dinosaurs do not realize yet that they are doomed.

Apple working on its third iteration of the tablet while competitors give theirs away

by leoncillo sabino

Apple nears trial production of high-res iPad 3 coming in early 2012
[Via AppleInsider]

Apple is aligning with its far eastern component suppliers and manufacturers for a trial production of a high-resolution, third-generation iPad ahead of a planned launch in 2012, as the electronic maker looks to continue to outpace would-be rivals in the high-stakes tablet space, according to the Wall Street Journal.

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Samsung’s tablet is now being used as a loss leader for HDTVs. Meanwhile Apple is getting ready to push even further with its third version while its competitors are4 having a hard time selling their copies of Apple’s first.

Not looking good for innovation outside of Apple.