Cherrypicking and noise; some more tools of the denialist

by Olgierd Pstrykotwórca

Trend and Noise
[Via Open Mind]

A commenter recently linked to a post by Steve Goddard claiming that “GISS Shows No Warming Over The Last Decade.” Goddard shows this graph: and thinks that establishes his claim. So I asked the reader, Suppose I characterize the global … Continue reading →

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Quote mining is one tool and here is the other – cherrypicking of data.

Let’s pose a thought experiment. Suppose there is something that is increasing every year at a set rate – say 1. But there is inherent noise in the data of ± 2. How many years will it take to see the trend above the noise? Well, one or two would not be enough for the tend to overwhelm the yearly noise.

That is what is answered in this post. Invariably, denialists actually chose a time period that is simply too short to separate signal from noise, so they can pretend that there is really no signal.

So, when someone picks an arbitrary date, be a little skeptical, particularly when they are trying to deny the consensus of most other researchers.

In this post, he shows that in a statistical sense, the temperatures of the last decade do not fall below the longterm trend. They fall within the expected error range based on the inherent noise of global temperatures.The fluctuation in yearly temperatures simply hides the trend, as would be expected over such a short period of time.

Looking at 30 years and the trend is obvious above the noise.

Push for greater use of generics

by e-MagineArt.com

Research shows generic medications are changing the economics of treating chronically ill patients
[Via EurekAlert! - Policy and Ethics]

(Brigham and Women’s Hospital) A study released today in the July issue of Health Affairs concludes that preventive health care is considerably less costly than previous industry estimates, because earlier studies projected financial impact based on costs of branded medications. Today, the cost to consumers and the health care system are significantly lower because generics are broadly available for most chronic diseases, the researchers said.

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There have been lots of studies to figure out the monetary impact of chronic diseases when using certain drugs. But this has been done using branded drugs. Gerenics result in much lower costs.

So, for example, glucose control of cardiovascular patients is $48,000 using the brand name but only about $1,000 with generics, a cost reduction of 98%.

The home of the buckyball could create a more efficeint future

‘Amplified’ nanotubes may power the future
[Via EurekAlert! - Biology]

(Rice University) Rice University scientists have achieved a pivotal breakthrough in the development of a cable that will make an efficient electric grid of the future possible. Armchair quantum wire (AQW) will be a weave of metallic nanotubes that can carry electricity with negligible loss over long distances. It will be an ideal replacement for the nation’s copper-based grid, which leaks electricity at an estimated 5 percent per 100 miles of transmission.

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Having gone to graduate school at Rice University as this work was being produced, it is great to see Rice is still doing wonderful things.

Now if they can only get these things to market in time to make a difference.

All students should read the Eighth Day of Creation

Horace Judson (1931 – 2011)
[Via Sandwalk]

Horace Freeland Judson died on May 6, 2011. He is best known as the author of The Eighth Day of Creation first published in 1979 and later re-published in an expanded edition in 1996. This is a “must-read” book for all students of biochemistry and molecular biology.

Mark Ptashne has published an obituary in PLoS Biology [Horace Judson (1931 - 2011)]. Ptashne raises an issue that should be of concern to all biological scientists; namely, the fact that modern molecular biologists seem to be completely unaware of the history of their field and of all the fundamental work done with bacteria and bacteriophage. This was a problem that Judson tried hard to rectify before it was too late but it’s beginning to look like he was not successful.
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I read this when it first came out and just marveled at how it not only made the science intriguing but also how interesting the researchers who did the work were.

Anyone who wants to understand where we have come from, in order to know where we are going, should read this book.

More in depth about “bath salts”

Bath salts (MDPV and mephedrone) in The New York Times
[Via PLoS Blogs]

I wrote in February about a type of legal high product known as “bath salts.” Unlike synthetic marijuana “incense” or “potpourri” products, the active compound in bath salts is a type of stimulant called MDPV (methylenedixypyrovalerone).

On the frontpage of today’s Sunday edition of The New York Times, Abby Goodnough and Katie Zezmia have an article highlighting the medical issues surrounding bath salt products. Of greatest concern to law enforcement and medical personnel is that some users behave in a violent manner that is unresponsive to typical sedatives or even being Tasered.

I’ve reposted below my essay on bath salts as their active compound was being legislated to illegal status in the state of North Carolina. Therein I’ve provided some background on MDPV.

 

For more information on another prominent compound in bath salts (and “plant food” legal highs), mephedrone or 4-MMC, please see this post from my neuropharmacology colleague DrugMonkey.

The following post appeared originally on 19 February 2011, under the title, “NC legislators aim to clean up “bath salt” omission,” at my Terra Sigillata blog on the CENtral Science network.

3,4-methylenedioxypyrovalerone (MDPV) – the most common compound found in “bath salts”

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This provides some more details about what the active ingredient in these bath salts is and what it can do.

Terrifying new drug causing real problems for emergency rooms

An Alarming New Stimulant, Sold Legally in Many States.
[Via Dave Winer's linkblog feed]

An Alarming New Stimulant, Sold Legally in Many States.

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This is one time government regulation is needed and needed now. These bath salts should not be allowed on the market anywhere in the US and only a Federal response could do that.