by Yutaka Tsutano
Survey: 44% of Verizon Android users likely to switch to iPhone on Day One
[Via Brainstorm Tech: Technology blogs, news and analysis from Fortune Magazine » Apple 2.0]
For Blackberry users it’s 66%, and nearly a quarter are willing to stand in line to get one
We’re not familiar with the work of uSamp, a high-tech online research firm based in Los Angeles, but if the results of the survey they released last week are accurate, Research in Motion (RIMM) is in trouble and the run on Google (GOOG) Android phones is about to hit a wall.
Drawing from a pool of 4.7 million panelists, uSamp asked a sample of 700 AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ) smartphone owners how likely they were to switch to Verizon’s version of Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone next Thursday, Feb. 10, the first day it goes on sale.
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Of course, polls only measure what people are willing to say in response to a specific question, so there are some worries about taking everything about the poll as truth. But it is fun working some of the numbers.
And in doing so, we can see that this survey may not hold many connections with reality.
Over 50% of Verizon Blackberry or Android users were likely or somewhat likely to switch on Day 1, with almost a quarter willing to wait in line! And 29% of ATT iPhone users would switch to Verizon on Day 1 and wait in line.
But percentages can be a little deceiving because only about 14% of the the 727 people in the survey own an Android or Blackberry.
Doing some back calculations, there were 378 ATT smartphone owners in the survey. So, the total number of ATT people in the survey who would switch on Day 1 was about 100.
There were 196 Android and 155 Blackberry users in the survey. From the table, 86 Android and 102 Blackberry users would change on Day 1.
Thus, of the people already with smartphones who say they will buy an iPhone on Day 1, roughly a third will be switching from ATT, a third will be switching from Android and a third will be switching from Blackberry.
Now, onto why I think the numbers do not really reflect reality, How many people at Verizon and ATT have smartphones? According to this 2009 survey, ATT had 12 million smartphone subscribers and Verizon had 5.1 million. I am sure the number is much higher now but let’s use these as a lowball estimate.
Thus,, according the new survey, 4,200,000 people from ATT will stand in line on Day 1 to buy an iPhone. They will be joined by 2,800,000 people from Verizon who have Androids or Blackberrys.
This survey suggests that seven million people who already have smartphones will be in line on Day 1. According to estimates, on the first day of sales of the iPhone 4, perhaps 750,000 iPhones were sold in the US. But most of these were pre-order units, something only current Verizon users can do. And these sold out the first day online.
It would be a miracle beyond belief that the iPhone 4, which had a huge start before, would be able to provide phones for 7,000,000 people on Day 1. If that many show up, there will be a lot of disappointment.
And is it really plausible that 7,000,000 people will really buy a phone on Day 1? I think many people’s views on the survey were unrealistic. They may be enthusiastic about switching in the abstract and there is no harm in saying yes.
While the numbers may be off, they certainly do reflect a widespread dissatisfaction amongst many non-iPhone users with their current smartphone or carrier. Apple could sell a lot of iPhones here.
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