Microsoft’s hesitancy may keep it from making the leap to the Mac App Store in time, dooming Office

appsby DanCentury

Microsoft debates bringing Office to the Mac App Store
[Via Edible Apple]

All Things D reports that Microsoft is toying with the idea of bringing Microsoft Office to the nascent Mac App Store. As it stands now, sales of the Mac version of Office are doing quite well, but the Mac App Store opens up a market of millions of potentially new customers. Indeed, stories of huge spikes in sales via the Mac App Store are beginning to emerge.

“It’s something we are looking at,” Microsoft’s Amanda Lefebvre explained.

Still, Microsoft probably isn’t too keen on Apple taking a 30% cut of its healthy Office profits. Moreover, Microsoft Office is quite possibly the most popular piece of software ever created so it’s not like Microsoft really needs added visibility to its already uber-popular productivity software.

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This is a really strategic issue for Windows. Obviously Office on the Mac is a big money maker for them. But the outrageous sales some are seeing from the App Store –€“ selling a a years worth of software in 20 days –means it should not lurk too long.

I’ve already started using Pages for some of my work – I can use it on any device I have now. The only time I ever open up word is just to check that my converted Pages document – converted to Word for those in the Windows world – still looks fine. I have not composed anything in Word for almost 2 months.

The longer MS waits, the more likely others will move away from Office software, and find really nice alternatives. Sure, some people need the high power of office, but that could start dropping with competition. It provides an interesting conundrum.

How rapidly could MS create an Office cohort for the Mac App store? Well, the app economy may require a development cycle that is way too fast for MS.

How the app economy changes the playing field

mac appby Cristiano Betta

Autodesk sells twice as many copies of Sketchbook Pro via Mac App Store than they did in all of 2010
[Via Edible Apple]

Seeing as how the Mac App Store isn’t even a month old yet, it’s far too early in the game to predict what type of affects it will have on Mac developers, both big and small. Still, just a few weeks in and we’re already starting to hear Mac App Store success stories sprouting up here and there.

Just last week,Pixelmator proudly announced that they had already grossed over $1 million in app store revenue in 20 days. Now comes word that Autodesk sold twice as many copies (2 million to be exact) of Sketchbook Pro via the Mac App store in 20 days than they had during 2010. Now that’s impressive.

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I would assume many developers would be ecstatic to sell as much in 20 days as they had the entire year previously. The sales departments quotas will have to be greatly altered. The app economy changes everything.

But this comment from the Loop adds something important to the process:

Autodesk engineered the Mac App Store edition of Sketchbook Pro to comply with Apple’s developer requirements, which are, as a company representative admitted, somewhat out of the typical comfort zones for Autodesk: For example, Mac App Store apps aren’t supposed to use private APIs, can’t incorporate their own end user licensing agreements, and can’t employ separate copy protection. As a result, sharing code with the iOS version made the process easier, though SketchBook Pro is scaled up to take advantage of the increased processing power and memory footprint of the Mac.

I wrote about this a month ago, before the Mac App Store opened. Developers can access a single set of core APIs that will take them across any digital device. No other company – not Google, not Microsoft – provides a single core OS that spans this range. Thus, when a developer makes an app for one Apple iOS device, they already have started development on apps for any device.

The killer app for Apple is the ability of developers to so easily move their software between devices.

Their development cycle was much shorter and easier because they could share code already developed for iOS. Now they have a code base that allows them to work on ANY digital device, from a mobile phone to a tablet to a laptop or desktop. Heck, it might not be out of the realm to have something in the future on an AppleTV App Store.

And they sell a heck of lot more copies, making their bottom line go up.

This is another innovation that other companies have no hope of copying.At least anytime soon.

An Android developer is limited to a cell phone or a tablet for their app. Same with Windows Phone 7 – which is still getting beat by the older Windows Mobile 6. And device fragmentation inhibits development even on specific devices.

Only Apple connects mobile developers with desktop in ways to make their life easier, and wealthier.



Al Jazeera is on my iPad

al jazeeraby Joi

Al Jazeera in Egypt is cable’s ‘Sputnik moment’
[Via Doc Searls Weblog]

Cable companies: Add Al Jazeera English *now* Jeff Jarvis commands, correctly, on his blog — and also in , under the headine . For me now was a few minutes ago, when I read both items on the family iPad, which has been our main news portal since the quit coming and I suspended my efforts to reach them by Web or phone. (The Globe also wants a bunch of ID crap when I go there on the iPad, so they’re silent that way too.) So I went to the App store, looked up , saw something called Al Jazeera English Live was available for free, got it, and began watching live protest coverage from Cairo.

We don’t have cable here. We dumped it after network news turned to shit, and we found it was easier to watch movies on Netflix. We still like to watch sports, but cable for sports alone is too expensive, because it’s always bundled with junk we don’t want and not available à la carte. (You know, like stuff is on the Web.) When we want TV news, we go online or get local TV through an gizmo plugged into an old Mac laptop. Works well, but it’s still TV.

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al Jazeera English has been the only real time news source i could watch online. I’ve also noticed that they break news, often directly from Egyptian sources, that does not make it onto American cabe news for several hours.

It also presents a much more news-centric view than on cable news. So much of US media relies on news personalities, not the news itself. We then have pundits tell us what we saw, with really very little serious discussion besides simply shouting. al Jazeera seems to use the BBC approach –  putting the news first with the reporters in the background. And they ask their experts really tough questions, not just letting them talk without push-back, no matter which side the guest is on.

The staff are not hired for looking pretty but for being very articulate, able to work very well extemporaneously in ways our TV personalities do not. And finally, our media is all about us – how will this affect us, what about Americans trapped in the violence, what about the price of oil? Also a lot of fear – making it seem as though looters are everywhere, for example.  This in lieu of real reporting.

But it was the ability to watch on the iPad that sealed the deal. They are even mice enough to warn people about possible data costs from streaming – that 10minutes is about 7.2 Mbytes of downloading.

Now I don’t care if cable carries al Jazeera. I may not watch all the time but if something breaks in the Middle East, I certainly will.

The Samsung Galaxy Tablet reveals that sold is in the eye of the beholder!

Samsung Galaxy Tab Sales Actually ‘Quite Small’
[Via Daring Fireball]

Evan Ramstad, reporting for the WSJ:

In early December, Samsung announced it had sold 1 million, declaring that sales were going “faster than expected.” Then, in early January, Samsung announced sales of 2 million.

But during the company’s quarterly earnings call on Friday, a Samsung executive revealed those figures don’t represent actual sales to consumers. Instead, they are the number of Galaxy Tab devices that Samsung has shipped to wireless companies and retailers around the world since product’s formal introduction in late September.

Pressed by an analyst at an investment bank, the Samsung executive, Lee Young-hee, acknowledged that sales to consumers were “quite small,” though she didn’t give a specific number.

[More]

Yeah, Samsung ‘sold’ the tablet 2 million times. But that number is not to consumers but to its channel partners – the cell phone companies that will sell the tablet to consumers.

Apple’s number of 11.4 million sold reflects iPads in consumer’s hands. We have no such idea from Samsung. In fact, not a single unit could be in any consumer’s hands yet Samsung could claim 2 million sold.

It will be important to se if these numbers decline as real sales are seen and not just channel filling. Keep an eye out for specials being run by carriers as they try and move inventory that is not normally moving.

Ain’t marketing fun? Luckily it appears that some reporters are asking hard questions but too many simply spread the misinformation.

What was it Santayana wrote? Something about remembering the past?

egyptby Muhammad غفّاري

“Dictatorships and Double Standards” Revisited
[Via Eunomia]

The emissary’s recommendations are presented in the context of a growing clamor for American disengagement on grounds that continued involvement confirms our status as an agent of imperialism, racism, and reaction; is inconsistent with support for human rights; alienates us from the “forces of democracy”; and threatens to put the U.S. once more on the side of history’s “losers.” This chorus is supplemented daily by interviews with returning missionaries and “reasonable” rebels.

As the situation worsens, the President assures the world that the U.S. desires only that the “people choose their own form of government”; he blocks delivery of all arms to the government and undertakes negotiations to establish a “broadly based” coalition headed by a “moderate” critic of the regime who, once elevated, will move quickly to seek a “political” settlement to the conflict. ~Jeane Kirkpatrick, “Dictatorships and Double Standards”

Does this sound familiar? The moves that Kirkpatrick was attacking in late 1979 as disastrous are the very moves that administration critics are urging Obama to make.

Kirkpatrick went on:

In either case, the U.S. will have been led by its own misunderstanding of the situation to assist actively in deposing an erstwhile friend and ally and installing a government hostile to American interests and policies in the world. At best we will have lost access to friendly territory….And everywhere our friends will have noted that the U.S. cannot be counted on in times of difficulty and our enemies will have observed that American support provides no security against the forward march of history.

It can’t be stressed enough that many of the people faulting the Obama administration for not doing enough to undermine Mubarak and other authoritarian allied rulers are the same people who insist that he has been betraying and undermining allies for the last two years. Of course, Obama hasn’t been betraying any U.S. allies, and the administration still seems to understand that encouraging Mubarak’s downfall would be and would be seen as a strategic blow and humiliation for the United States. Americans should want to get out of the business of empire and power projection in the Near East, but there is no way that having a client government overthrown or actively encouraging its overthrow does anything but harm legitimate U.S. interests along with harming misguided hegemonist policies. If the U.S. didn’t insist on having a huge role in the region and meddling in its affairs, we wouldn’t need an alliance system that leads us to support such authoritarian governments, but very few of the people urging the administration to help wreck a major alliance want the U.S. to disentangle itself from the Near East

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While Daniel and I disagree on many domestic issues, his views on foreign issues often overlap mine. This piece about what Jeane Kirkpatrick wrote over 30 years ago really puts things in perspective. We seem to be having the exact same arguments  with little if any progress over the last generation towards any solutions. One step forward, one step back can never be progress.

In Volume One – Reason in Common Sense – of the Life of Reason – which we can read because of what copyright used to be – George Santayana wrote “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” Here it is in context, which provides an interesting examination not only of individuals but of society:

Progress, far from consisting in change, depends on retentiveness. When change is absolute there remains no being to improve and no direction is set for possible improvement: and when experience is not retained, as among savages, infancy is perpetual. Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it. In the first stage of life the mind is frivolous and easily distracted; it misses progress by failing in consecutiveness and persistence. This is the condition of children and barbarians, in whom instinct has learned nothing from experience. In a second stage men are docile to events, plastic to new habits and suggestions, yet able to graft them on original instincts, which they thus bring to fuller satisfaction. This is the plane of manhood and true progress. Last comes a stage when retentiveness is exhausted and all that happens is at once forgotten; a vain, because unpractical, repetition of the past takes the place of plasticity and fertile readaptation. In a moving world readaptation is the price of longevity. The hard shell, far from protecting the vital principle, condemns it to die down slowly and be gradually chilled; immortality in such a case must have been secured earlier, by giving birth to a generation plastic to the contemporary world and able to retain its lessons. Thus old age is as forgetful as youth, and more incorrigible; it displays the same inattentiveness to conditions; its memory becomes self-repeating and degenerates into an instinctive reaction, like a bird’s chirp.

We can not move forward unless we know where we are moving forward from. Look especially at the last part:

Last comes a stage when retentiveness is exhausted and all that happens is at once forgotten; a vain, because unpractical, repetition of the past takes the place of plasticity and fertile readaptation. In a moving world readaptation is the price of longevity. The hard shell, far from protecting the vital principle, condemns it to die down slowly and be gradually chilled; immortality in such a case must have been secured earlier, by giving birth to a generation plastic to the contemporary world and able to retain its lessons. Thus old age is as forgetful as youth, and more incorrigible; it displays the same inattentiveness to conditions; its memory becomes self-repeating and degenerates into an instinctive reaction, like a bird’s chirp.

This seems to capture the current moment in American life precisely. Few seem to remember what happened just last week. There is little context, just a reaction to what is happening right now. Instead of grafting new habits onto old, many have an instinctive reaction to most things. There is little readaptation, just a continual reintroduction of the same policies and arguments seen last year, or five years ago, or 30 years ago.

When we were a nation on the plane of manhood and true progress, we reacted to the threat of a Sputnik moment by creating the single greatest effort in the history of man – we not only put a man on the moon but returned him to Earth. That too us twelve years.

The reaction of our nation then to the need for ‘plasticity and fertile adaptation’ suggested by the President was a monumental effort whose consequences we are still feeling 50 years later.

Today, we can not even repeat that effort, much less forge ahead to new ones.

Today, we have political leaders who view that sort of effort as a path for national collapse. They see most any government program as inefficient  and wasteful. They feel that we should instead focus our efforts on things that worked in the past, like the Spudnut Shop in Richland, Washington.

Their reaction to the need for ‘plasticity and fertile adaptation’ suggested by the President is to return to a mode of life that started over 60 years ago – when the Spudnet Shop in Richland, Washington was first opened.

What is truly ironic here is that Richland, Washington was essentially created by the US Army for the Manhattan Project. In 1948, when the Spudnut shop opened, the Army was the landlord for all that lived there, who were working on extracting plutonium for bombs. That was then the only reason for the place to exist – a large government project of exactly the sort derided currently.

The Federal government did not turn over ownership to private hands until 1957. Richland today still requires the huge government effort at Hanford to sustain itself. Without this continuing effort, the Spudnut Shop would have closed long ago – as did many of the almost 350 former Spudnut Shops in the past. Yes, this is one of the last shops of a failing enterprise. Another ironic image.

The Spudnut Shop only exists because of a previous huge government effort, one that was a previous generation’s response a ‘Sputnik moment‘.

The reaction of our nation then to the need for ‘plasticity and fertile adaptation’ suggested by the President was a monumental effort whose consequences we are still feeling almost 70 years later - the creation of one of the most destructive weapons of all time.

Two Presidents pushed us to find solutions to some tremendous challenges. We responded then – demonstrating the level of our control over the world by creating two of the pinnacle tools in history. When a third President now pushes us to find solutions to some tremendous challenges, the response is an instinctive reflex for simpler times where the only level of control over the world was figuring out where to sit in the Spudnut Shop.

Sometime since 1970, we passed from the stage of true progress to the stage of old age. The metaphor of the Spudnut Shop is supremely apt to demonstrate this.

The use of the Spudnut Shop displays such an inattentiveness to conditions, to historic details. It forgets where we came from, making it easier to just stop moving. In an attempt to denigrate present and past government efforts, the instinctive reaction is use the repetitive example of hard-working Americans, without even seeing that the existence of this wonderful business relied on the success of an earlier massive government effort of the type now being derided.

The irony would be sweet if it was also not such an egregious example of what stage America appears to now find itself. We act more and more as though we are in the state of old age, not the stage of progress.

We move forward and back, with really little movement at all. We seem to be unable to understand the past, with leaders who simply can not recognize that their memory of the past simply does not fit the facts and provides little real understanding of their rhetoric.

Santayana wrote several other important phrases in the same book that seem relevant: The highest form of vanity is love of fame; Fanaticism consists in redoubling your efforts when you have forgotten your aim; and, Happiness is the only sanction of life; where happiness fails, existence remains a mad and lamentable experiment.

The first two are amply filled by many of our politicians – no matter what their political strip –  who seem hell-bent on providing happiness for themselves, leaving the rest of us a ‘mad and lamentable’ existence.

The Tunisians and Egyptians. are demonstrating where this leads just as but two earlier examples also demonstrate – the Poles and French. When a new “generation plastic to the contemporary world and able to retain its lessons” comes to power, perhaps we can again return to a path of progress.

Mankind will move forward. I hope that, as in the past, we are pulling them. However, if we follow the path charted by some, we will have to be pulled.

What happens when you autotune a great communicator – Steve Jobs?

Autotuned clip of Steve Jobs introducing the original iPhone
[Via Edible Apple]

Whether you love or hate autotune, there’s no denying that the vocal effect which alters a singer’s voice to attain perfect pitch has had a profound affect on music, and to a lesser extent, pop culture. The first time autotune was prominently used in a song was in Cher’s 1998 song “Believe.” Since then, autotune has taken on a life of its own – from being used quite regularly by Hip Hop artists like Kanye West and T-Pain to hilarious and extremely popular web clips which feature autotuned versions of mundane news reports.

And though Jay-Z might think autotune is dead, we beg to differ. The following autotuned clip of Steve Jobs’ 2007 iPhone introduction at Macworld is simply brilliant.

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This is simply brilliant. The editing heightens the entire presentation and makes a great spectacle more amazing.

Quite a bit of fun.

Message to my Mom IV

caesarfrom Wikipedia

It has been a while but I thought I’d bring up an excerpt from this email to my Mom from last Fall. It fits with my mention of the accretion of power by the Unitary Executive.

I was writing my mother about the Citizens United case, the corruption of our government by corporate money and gave her a thumbnail view of Roman history – particularly the fall of the Republic. I may have some details worng – I was working from memory on much of it – put it is correct in its focus – the corruption of power in Rome by money made it easy for the legislative side to give more power to a Unitary Executive.

Here is the relevant part (with some small editing):

What I would like is a constitutional amendment to create a Plural Executive, along the lines of what Texas has. The Executive branch has aggregated way too much power over the last 30 years.

You know, the Roman Republic used a plural executive, electing two consuls every year to run the government.

This worked well until the First Triumvirate came into existence which eventually resulted in the end of the Roman Republic. The First Triumvirate was made of 3 men – Pompey and Julius Caesar, the greatest military minds of the time and Crassus, the richest man who ever existed in Roman History if not all history. (He made much of his fortune because he ran the only fire brigade in Rome. When a home would catch on fire, he would negotiate a fee to put it out. If it ended up burning to the ground, he bought it for cheap.) His wealth has been estimated at $2 trillion – the richest man in the world today has about $50 billion. His wealth was equal to the entire Roman treasury at the time. Think about someone whose wealth was equal to the entire US budget.

There was tremendous turmoil during that time, with slave revolts and populist revolts. There was an attempt by the farmers to kill Senators, which resulted in a lot of clamping down on rights. This is when Spartacus ran amok throughout the peninsula, scaring the Romans probably every bit as much as we were scared by 9/11, maybe more because the guys who wanted to slit every Roman throats were actually a large army in the heart of the country. IN addition to his wealth, Crassus gained a lot of political power by defeating Spartacus – using decimation of his own troops for motivation and crucifixion of the slaves as example. Other generals had failed so Crassus was viewed as the one who saved Rome)

So, the richest guy in the world got together with two of the greatest generals ever (who also happened to be quite wealthy)  and formed a secret group – the First Triumvirate –  to control the government in 59 BC. They decided who would be consul (the executive branch  of the Republic, who got the plumb jobs, etc. And made it happen. Using money and influence, they corrupted members of the Senate, who went about removing rivals of the Triumvirate, often by violent means (two of the greatest speakers in Roman history, Cicero and Cato, were politically destroyed at this time because of their opposition), while the trio enjoyed aggregating more money and power as consuls, often together.

Crassus died in 53 BC and within 4 years, Julius Caesar had crossed the Rubicon, Pompey was killed and Caesar was in complete control being declared dictator for life and effectively ending the independence of the Roman Senate. The Roman Republic would effectively end 5 years later in 44 BC with Caesar’s assassination.

A weak and corrupt Legislative branch allowed money to corrupt it, resulting in the emergence of strongmen with money to destroy the Republic. The huge fortune of one man was able to do this (although the huge wealth of the other two can not be discounted).

Not a happy story but one I think about a lot these days.  From the time when Spartacus scared the Romans spitless to the consolidation of power by the wealthy trio was about 10 years. The end of the Republic was about 15 years after that. Twenty five years from the catalyzing incident that drove the Romans to look to strong Executive powers for protection to the end of the Senate and a Unitary Executive with complete legislative powers – an emperor. The end happened very quickly after the corruption of government began.

Our Founding Fathers knew this and  did everything they could to limit the power of the Executive branch. But they did not come up with a good way to prohibit the corrupting influence of large amounts of money, especially on Congress.

Until we figure out a way to deal with that, we will never by truly functional, no  matter who is in charge. And we will be in terrible danger of completely losing our Republic.

At one time, I had hoped Obama might be able to repair some of this damage. In fact, I think he really tried to allow Congress to do its job of legislating and just focus on carrying out the will of Congress. BUt things are so broken that we can not actually function without a strong Executive spending most of his time telling Congress what to do.

We have to fix things but the efforts that are taking place are, to my mind, actually more conducive to strengthening the Executive rather than weakening. Nothing is being  done to reform Congress and especially the corrupting influence of unlimited amounts of money from corporations. It may well be that history records the Citizen United decision as one the most corrupt decisions of a corrupt age.

So we can be more like Egypt

Egypt turns off internet, Lieberman wants same option for US
[Via Boing Boing]

On Thursday Jan 27th at 22:34 UTC the Egyptian Government effectively removed Egypt from the internet. Nearly all inbound and outbound connections to the web were shut down. The internet intelligence authority Renesys explains it here and confirms that “virtually all of Egypt’s Internet addresses are now unreachable, worldwide.” This has never happened before in the entire history of the internet, with a nation of this size. A block of this scale is completely unheard of, and Senator Joe Lieberman wants to be able to do the same thing in the US.

This isn’t a new move, last year Senators Lieberman and Collins introduced a fairly far-reaching bill that would allow the US Government to shut down civilian access to the internet should a “Cybersecurity Emergency” arise, and keep it offline indefinitely. That version of the bill received some criticism though Lieberman continued to insist it was important. The bill, now referred to as the ‘Protecting Cyberspace as a National Asset Act’ (PCNAA) has been revised a bit and most notably now removes all judicial oversight. This bill is still currently circulating and will be voted on later this year. Lieberman has said it should be a top priority.

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Yeah, they want to give the Executive branch the sole power to determine what is a strategic part of the network and to do what they want during an emergency. Just like what Mubarak appears to have done, a President could shut down Internet access in the US.

By their sole authority and with no judicial oversight. Why in the world is a bipartisan movement in Congress willing to give any President that much power over commercial and government computers? It seems they claim that a 1934 law  already gives a President the right to shut down the Internet and that they are simply clarifying this.

Do we really feel comfortable with this use of an 80 year old law designed for radio and not the Internet?

This is how it looks when the government in Egypt tries to stifle communication for its own survival from internal pressures, not external:

NewImage.jpg

The way I read the legislation, a President could also shut down cell phone networks and pretty much any tool used for communication, as he solely decides. Congress has handed the Executive branch way too much power.

Now the only thing preventing the Executive Branch from declaring an emergency and taking over the Internet, cell phones and all other forms of communication is … what?

The whole purpose of our government is to split up power but over the last 30 years, promulgated by the conservative view of a Unitary Executive, Congress has abdicated its responsibilities. It not only gives the Executive more and more power but actually lessens its own oversight of that power.

If this bill ever becomes law, it will simply be another step down the same path Rome went through, a path that our Founding Fathers tried to forestall but that our legislators seem so willing to take.


My Challenger experience

challenger memorialby Tony the Misfit

The real story behind 7 Challenger myths
[Via Boing Boing]

Related to the 25th anniversary of the Challenger disaster—7 myths about Challenger debunked by former mission control operator James Oberg.

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Challenger is, along with 9/11, one of those events where I know almost exactly what I was doing.

I was doing my postdoc in Boulder then and had gone to Aspen with some other researchers to ski. I was on a ski lift when, about late morning, I heard something had happened with Challenger and I went back to the room – the only one in our group to do so. (Just as I was the only one at my workplace who spent thee day watching the news on 9/11. Everyone else just kept working.) So I know I did not see it live.

I broke into tears watching the replay of the end of Challenger – I still do whenever I see replays –and hoped, even then, that they were not awake afterwards. I did not ski again that day.

I remember watching the Challenger hearings, although I can not recall if I saw Feynman’s experiment with the O-ring live or not. I do remember the poor engineer who had been picked to be the scapegoat in front of the hearing. I remember hearing about people changing their ‘hats’ to make a decisions, as though what an engineer had to say would change when he thought as an administrator.

Of these 7 myths, the only one I would have agreed with is the explosions – the somewhat pedantic explanation that it was not really an explosion may be true but people have little other experience on what to call it. People do not really know the difference between detonation and deflagration. Simply saying ‘it came apart’ does little justice to the absolute destruction of the event. Using explosion as a shorthand does not seem mythic to me.

But so many of the other myths are to find some bigger reason other than simple human failure – it was Reagan’s fault, it was the EPA’s fault. The idea that there is really nothing we can do – that, like Jurassic Park, scientists and engineers will always fail and that danger can not be reduced – is also a deeply destructive myth.

What I do recall is that the solid boosters used had, at that time, a failure rate of about 1 in 50. The Challenger was the 25th Shuttle flight – 2 boosters per flight. (Overall, the Shuttle has a failure rate of 1 in 65 missions, suggesting that engineers did get better at reducing risk by making changes in the design.)  The problem was more that flight management had adopted a ‘well it did not blow up last time, it will not blow up this time’ attitude towards dealing with many of the problems that arose with the complex Shuttle. Thus they had really ignored the entire purpose for Criticality 1 issues.

Because, if they had really done that, it is likely that fewer Shuttle flights would have been made. There was a lot of redundancies built into the system that allowed all sorts of things to be survived. We know about the problem with the low temperatures. But that was a contingency that we did know about and could discuss.

In fact, it is very possible that they would have made it through this event also – even with the burnt O-rings – except that the Challenger experienced the strongest wind shear pressures ever. These forces acted to break the frail protection that still existed in the solid rocket boosters. Without the wind, the Challenger might have avoided disaster, even with all the engineering mistakes.

And that is really the important lesson. As we gain better knowledge of the natural world around us, then we can do a much better job working with it. Designing a system that can even fail and still work was a marvel, until it hit a natural part of our world outside our previous knowledge. Now that we know, we can take precautions.



Helping teachers teach facts, like evolution

teacherby kevindooley

Training teachers to take on the creationism/evolution battle
[Via Ars Technica]

Between March 5 and May 1, 2007, Michael Berkman and Eric Plutzer, political science professors at Pennsylvania State University, sent out mail and e-mail surveys regarding evolution to US public high school biology teachers. Based on the 926 responses that came from nearly every state (no responses from Wyoming), they found that only around 28 percent of teachers consistently taught evolution in a forthright manner. The majority of teachers (60 percent) taught evolution cautiously, allowing room for debate and doubt. The rest of the teachers openly advocated creationism.

In a recent issue of Science, Berkman and Plutzer focus much of their article on that 60 percent of cautious teachers who, for one reason or the other, fail to fully support evolution. The authors propose that it is possible to persuade those timid teachers to become advocates of evolution, as the teachers do not exhibit strong conservative markers like believing that the universe is only 10,000 years old. Berkman and Plutzer suggest that the main cause of the problem is that these teachers lack confidence in their grasp of evolutionary biology.

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An interesting discussion until the comments began to attract creationists. Then it began to get silly.

I took two years of biology in HIgh School in Houston in the early 70s. In neither year did we ever get to the chapter on evolution. I learned about Darwin and evolution on my own but I actually had to do some remedial work my first year in college to catch up with my peers.

I don’t expect this to be solved soon but  we must get to a point where science can be discussed in a science class instead of religion. As long as fundamentalist’s beliefs drive what gets taught, America will be falling further behind others.

Currently playing in iTunes: Golgotha by Dry Branch Fire Squad from Tried & True

The real sign of Apple’s innovations – they fit on a table

[Crossposted at SpreadingScience]

$76 billion a year from a tableful of products
[Via asymco]

During the calendar year 2010 Apple spent nearly $2 billion in R&D. That is a significant increase from $714 million in 2006. However, as a percent of sales, R&D spending has decreased. Sales have grown more rapidly than resources hired to develop the products (or to sell them).

In Q4 2005 Operational Expenses (costs which are not tied directly to units of production–sometimes called fixed costs) were 14.2% of sales. In the last quarter of 2010, the ratio was 9.2%. Sales and administrative expenses (which include advertising, promotion and overhead) were 7.1% and R&D (which includes all engineering, testing) were 2.2%. As percent of sales both reached new lows.

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I mentioned this last week but this is a nice graph to see trends.

This remark was pretty cool to think about:

The efficiency with which Apple creates sales is legendary. There can be many explanations for this but the most telling evidence of causality I can find is the small number of products in the portfolio. Tim Cook stated that given the sales value, there is more concentration of product at Apple than at any other company except perhaps an oil company. All the products Apple sells can fit on one average sized kitchen table and they generated $76 billion in sales last year.

I’ve written about Apple’s approaches, as well as those of other 21st Century companies. One of the  key aspects is their efficiency – they produce a huge amount of innovative work that belies the small size of their research groups. Pixar is another example.

I worked for a company that accomplished this – Immunex. We were able to compete with much larger companies by focussing our research efforts very tightly. Not that we only worked on a few things. We worked on a lot of them.

But we only allowed a very few to pass through to real development. We did this by having a very open and transparent vetting process for projects. We examined every research project 3 times a year in a process that could be attended by everyone.

What this did is make it very hard to carry on projects purely for political reasons. In many companies, a powerful sponsor could take possession of a project and push it through, resulting in something that dies on the market; in these companies, politcal pull can bemore important than actual innovation.

Because of the social aspect of our vetting, it became much harder to say that a project would continue “Because I said so” when everyone could see that another project held better value. It decreased the ability of politicians to get a project approved.

And, since everyone’s views were heard, people could understand why a decision was made – it was made in public.

We worked hard to kill projects or put them on the backburner. But it was all done in public. And then we allowed every scientist to spend a percentage of their time working on a project – any project – that they wanted to. This not only allowed people to continue for a time even on killed projects, hoping to rejuvenate them, but allowed really creative ideas to be examined.

But, after a certain time, each of these were vetted in public. If they did not pass the public test, they were scrapped.

We developed a lot of innovative ways to foster creativity but the most important was making the discussions and decisions open to anyone, make the important decisions as early as possible and make them public.

I don’t know if Apple does the latter but it seems likely they do the former, as this from asymco suggests:

Most observers of technology are not aware of the pace of its development. It’s natural to assume that most R&D costs are in the product creation, or early phases of development. Coming up with something new must be hard. But that’s not actually true. Most R&D work is routine polishing of products and coordination late in the development cycle. “Productization” is far more resource intensive than “concepting”.

This is absolutely true – coming up with ideas is easy; making them happen is hard.

It stands to reason that making go/no-go decisions early in the pipeline is a lot less expensive than making stop-ship decisions prior to launch.

I have no specific evidence that this is the case, but I guess Apple conceives of plenty of concepts, but chooses to move forward to develop and market very few. Most companies don’t have the ability to decide early and proceed with costly R&D and marketing in order to find out whether products will “work” in the marketplace. The proliferation of flawed products is a big cause of the inefficiency of product development.

Look at so many companies. They put out lots of products hoping the market will decide which is best. They want consumers to do the hard work. How did the Kin see the light of day? Many companies just can not kill a project that has emotional and political connections. So they let it slump on through, hoping that the market sees potential.

That is why, a year after the iPad, we have 100 different copy cats, while in the years before the Ipad there was just nothing even close. Most companies have no real idea of what is successful to they copy other’s success.

But Apple, like Immunex, repeats innovation time and again because it has developed a process of killing things that do not work and, if they can, killing them before they progress very far. They may not always succeed – they have had failures – but they usually know why it failed.

I worked for a company that came up with innovative solutions for years –again and again – so I know that what Apple is doing is not only working but is reproducible.

That is what separates a 21st Century Company from a 20th Century one.

Who will say ‘Apple should

Netflix says Apple TVs streaming more of its movies than iPads
[Via AppleInsider]

Within Netflix earnings release, the company noted that Apple TV’s support for its Watch Instantly video streaming has already passed up iPad users in viewing hours.

[More]

While I do not ever see it happening, I wonder when the first analyst will say Apple should buy NetFlix. That is usually the level of analysis many seem to use to earn a living.

By the way, Dry Branch Fire Squad is one of my favorite old timey/buegrass bands, although their music does defy convention. It is their live shows that are truly outstanding, especially the commentary between sets. Some of the best ‘hillbilly’ insight since Andy Griffith in his prime. You have to love a group with a song called “(You Got to Pray to the Lord) When You See Those Flying Saucers.” On their recent album, I simply cried the entire time listening to ‘Echo Mountain.”

Currently playing in iTunes: Stormy Waters by Dry Branch Fire Squad from Echoes of the Mountains

Google’s corrections to poor app sales makes them more like Apple

sadby cjmartin

Google “not happy” with slow Android app sales
[Via AppleInsider]

Despite brisk hardware sales to consumers and large numbers of apps sitting in in marketplace, Google’s Android platform isn’t resulting in healthy app sales, a problem the company is trying to solve.

Speaking to “anxious app developers” at the Inside Social Apps conference in San Francisco on Tuesday, Android platform manager Eric Chu said Google is actually “not happy” about the limited number of apps actually being purchased, according to a report by Forbes blogger Oliver Chiang.

[More]

Since Google only makes money if people use the ads placed in the apps, slow app sales hurts its business model.

Apple makes money because it sells the hardware needed to run the apps. Any money from distributing the apps is gravy.

Not Google whose model requires people use the apps for it to make any money at all.

So Google is going to ‘innovate’ by trying to do what Apple already does – in-app billing.

But that only works if people are getting apps and want to spend money directly. But the typical Android user seems to want everything to be free, resulting in fewer paid apps. This would suggest that finding ways for them to spend money in an app they got for free may need some work.

And Google looks to be applying more of a curated approach to their Marketplace, just like Apple does. So much for the free and open bazaar heralded by my Google fans as a contrast to the ‘walled garden’ of the app store. Maybe this will get rid of malware which gets put up on the Android Marketplace.

I bet the Google plan to allow apps to hook into someone’s contact list will work out well. Malware and hooks into my contacts – a match made in heaven.

Of course, I may have to ask any Android using friends of mine to remove my name from their contact lists.

We can not walk, drive or swim in a straightline

pathby jurvetson

Why Can’t We Walk Straight?
[Via Daring Fireball]

Fascinating NPR report by Robert Krulwich, delightfully animated by Benjamin Arthur. (Via Swissmiss.)

[More]

What is fascinating is not that the paths get off line. It is that they often seem to develop progressively tighter and tighter circles. It seems the person would obvioulsy know they were following a curve not a line.

But they don’t. This indicates to me that it must be more than simply walking with one leg longer than the other, for instance. I mean the inability to see just how tight a circle one is waling indicates something fundamental in how the brain examines its surroundings when it has not visual input.

Pretty interesting.

Pixelmator reports $1 million haul from Mac App Store in just 20 days

medalby Naval History & Heritage Command

Pixelmator reports $1 million haul from Mac App Store in just 20 days
[Via AppleInsider]

Less than three weeks after listing Pixelmator on Apple’s new Mac App Store, its developers report grossing a million dollars from the title, while Microsoft and some other big Mac developers have yet to engage the new online market.

[More]

$1 million in 20 days. Not too shabby. Another example of how the app economy changes things.

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