Largest oil disaster ever?

by NASA/MODIS Rapid Response Team

Oilpocalypse Now: WSJ reports BP oil disaster may be leaking at rate of 1 million gallons a day – Spill may exceed Exxon Valdez within days — not weeks
[Via Climate Progress]

If you live along the Gulf Coast or have relevant expertise (e.g. offshore drilling, the near-impossible task of cleaning up these messes) — and are interested in writing guest posts – please contact me (click here).

Climate Progress will be following the BP oil disaster story closely for several reasons:

1. It will be the biggest energy and environmental news story for the foreseeable future. Eleven people are already dead and if yesterday’s Wall Street Journal story, “Experts: Oil May Be Leaking at Rate of 25,000 Barrels a Day in Gulf” (subs. req’d, excerpted below) is accurate, then the scope of the environmental disaster is far beyond anything we’ve imagined.
2. How the story plays out will probably determine more than anything else whether there is comprehensive energy and climate legislation this year.
3. I have been writing, researching, and speaking about oil for two decades now. My first two books discussed the oil security issue extensively, including the one I wrote for the Council on Foreign Relations in 1993, Defining National Security: the Nonmilitary Aspects. My first Congressional testimony representing the Department of Energy in 1996 was on an analysis that I did on the threat posed by growing US oil dependence (hard to read HTML here, massive PDF here). I have been following the oil and the drilling debate closely here on CP. As I discussed in a March post, here’s what we’re going to get for all that new drilling people want to do:  EIA: New offshore drilling will lower gas prices in 2030 a few pennies a gallon.
4. I’m already getting bombarded with emails from experts with angles and analyses on the disaster that I haven’t seen discussed in the media yet.

Did I mention it’s time to get off the dirty, unsafe energy sources of the 19th century that can’t sustain the human race and that’s it’s time to redouble our efforts to embrace the clean, safe energy sources of the 21st century that never run out?

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The estimate has gone from 1000 barrels a day to 5000. Now estimates are closer to 20,000 barrels a day. at 42 gallons a barrel, that is over 800,000 gallons a day.

The largest oil leak previously was the exxon Valdez, at 11 million gallons. If this estimate is correct, over 9 million have been spilled and we will pass the Valdez in a few days. If it takes the current 90 days to cap this, it will have leaked almost 95 million gallons.

Here’s hoping they are wrong. But if not, what is 95 million gallons of oil going to do to the Gulf of Mexico?

Failing to upgrade

by tomsun

Android users not upgrading their OS to the latest version
[Via AppleInsider]

Unlike the rapidly deployed updates Apple posts for the iPhone OS through iTunes, Android users are unlikely (and often unable) to apply the latest updates to their phones, according to new information published by Google and its AdMob subsidiary.

As is the case with most other alternative smartphone platforms, Android users appear to often remain stuck with the firmware version their phone shipped with originally. This is primarily due to fragmentation problems that require the hardware maker, software platform vendor, and the mobile provider to work together to create and deliver custom updates for each model.

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This reminds me of Windows users – they often only upgrade when they buy a new computer. But in this case, the reasons are often the phone manufacturers. The fragmentation makes it harder for developers to know just which version to create software for.

With three almost equally sized groups of Android systems, it becomes a very complex market to sell in. It also makes it harder to fix bugs and flaws.

iPad screenshots instead of PDFs

by Me

On my home computer, when I have a receipt in a browser window from a purchase, I usually print the page and, since I have a Mac, save it as a PDF. So I have a digital copy of what I bought and the various numbers needed.

It acts as a backup in case I do not get the email expected from the company.

I was trying to think of what to do with my iPad, as it does not really have the same functionality. Then a chance comment on a post gave me the solution – just take a screen shot of the relevant info and email to myself.

Taking a screenshot is easy. Simply hold the wake/sleep button and then quickly click the home button. You will see a ‘flash” and hear the photo click. Then simply look at your Saved Photos folder and there it is. Look at it or send it via email.

That is how I created the above photo.

Houston beats Seattle in iPad usage

The iPads of Bend, Oregon
[Via Brainstorm Tech]

According to Net Application‘s May 1 report, the five U.S. market areas with the largest concentration of iPads — measured by its clients’ browser data — are as follows:

1. San Francisco, Calif. (0.25% Internet share)
2. Grand Junction, Colo. (0.23%)
3. Santa Barbara, Calif. (0.19%)
4. Honolulu, Hawaii (0.19%)
5. Bend, Ore. (0.19%)

Bend what?

Yes, Bend, Ore., a city 82,000 souls nearly 200 miles from the nearest Apple Store that seems to give lie to the notion that iPad fever is a condition that affects only Apple (AAPL) diehards in large metropolitan areas.

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I checked out the report. Houston is tied for 35th, while Seattle-Tacomoa is tied for 54th. My Houstonian Mom will be happy.

Of course, there are several towns in Texas with higher iPad penetration – Austin (tied for 3rd), Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio (tied for 21st).

I just want to know why Grand unction is number 2.

Serendipity and synchronicity meet again

by Pink Sherbet Photography

VRM meets CRM
[Via Doc Searls Weblog]

CRM Magazine has devoted much of its May 2010 issue, including its cover and lead stories, to VRM and the growing power of individual customers, within which VRM is one vector.

Naturally, Cluetrain is also covered, since it pointed in this same direction, long ago.

This is an impressive move on the part of the CRM Magazine folks, and I hope the industry it covers follows its lead.

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So, I had just finished posting this about iPad magazines and how they should move towards a more ‘fremium’ model – where everyone can get access to a low cost version but that fans can get added services for a little more money. I mention that this puts the choice of engagement into in the hands of the customer rather than the corporations.

Then I read Doc Searl’s little post linking to vendor relationship management (VRM). The About page at Project VRM states:

ProjectVRM is a research and development project of the Berkman Center for Internet & Society at Harvard University. It has two purposes:

1. To encourage development of tools by which individuals can take control of their relationships with organizations — especially in commercial marketplaces.
2. To conduct research on VRM-related theories, usage of VRM tools, and effects as adoption of VRM tools takes place.

The project is run by Doc Searls, a fellow at the Berkman Center.

VRM stands for Vendor Relationship Management, a term that was coined as a customer-side counterpart for Customer Relationship Management, or CRM — a multi-billion-dollar worldwide industry by which companies manage their relationships with customers, with little or no active input from customers themselves, other than what those companies allow.

Synchronicity because the idea I discussed – how customers might have greater control over the level of information they gather from publishers – is really just a form of vendor relationship management.

Serendipity because I happened across Doc’s post immediately after I posted my article.

Here we have one of the people whose ideas I have incorporated so deeply into my psyche that I do not even know when I am discussing parallel ideas until I cross their path – yes I know the metaphor does not quite work properly but it does encompass what I am trying to say.

What is being discussed are tools that make it easy for the customer to control the relationship. And business models that put much of the choice in the hands of the customer rather than the corporation. Those are things that the Internet can provide us.

Perhaps now corporations and customers will really begin to use them.

iPad magazines at $5 a piece will not be sustainable

by viZZZual.com

Why iPad mags cost $4.99 each
[Via Brainstorm Tech]

If you buy the digital editions of Popular Science or TIME Magazine on the iPad, they cost $4.99 each — same as on the newsstand.

However, one-year subscriptions to Popular Science (the paper magazine) are currently selling for $12 — or $1 an issue. And TIME subscriptions can be had for $20 — around 35¢ an issue.

That disconnect was one of the topics addressed Thursday at Tabula Rasa NYC, a day-long “creative throwdown on tablet computing” hosted by WeMedia.

“We’re trying to make our readers not feel like we’re slapping them in the face as we explore this new world,” said Popular Science editor-in-chief Mark Jannot, who demonstrated the latest iPad edition of his magazine to a roomful of developers, designers and business strategists. “But we’re going to continue to be aggressive about pricing. We’ll see what the market will bear.”

So far it seems to be bearing up for Jannot.

Popular Science is currently No. 39 on the App Store’s Top Paid list and No. 41 on its list of Top Grossing apps. TIME, which until this week required readers to download a new app for each issue, is not doing quite as well. It’s fallen off the Top Paid list, having reached No. 16 the week of the iPad’s launch with its Steve Jobs cover issue, and dropped to No. 73 on Top Grossing.

[UPDATE: Josh Quittner, editor at large for digital development at Time Inc., points out that those numbers are misleading because until now each issue of TIME was treated as a separate app. "If you took all of our issues and added them together," he says, "I’m sure we’d still be the top selling and top grossing mag app."]

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Perhaps Time can get away with this for a while. Of course, with this route, Time is in total control of what the market HAS to bear. I love some of the quotes:

“I like the brazenness of TIME‘s $4.99 an issue,” said Roger Black, a veteran magazine designer whose portfolio includes the logos for both TIME and Newsweek.

“I think the TIME Magazine app is the most sinful piece of shit ever,” said Buzzmachine‘s Jeff Jarvis, a former Time Inc. editor and author of What Would Google Do? “The ego of it was unabashedly awful.”

I’m sure they have sold a lot, just from curiosity seekers. But I am also pretty sure that once a subscription model arrives, fewer single issues will be sold.

I might subscribe for $30 a year or so, especially if there was compelling reasons to prefer the digital model – such as novel photos, etc.

But no way will I spend $5 a week for Time.

And, they still do not really get what is happening. They are simply trying to keep their current business structure intact in some fashion.. But, as Clay Shirky discussed some of the problems in his essay The Collapse of Complex Business Models, newer and more simpler business models will make it very difficult for older, more complex structures to sustain themselves.

I think the model that may have some real power is something along the lines of a freemium one – a no/low cost edition for most people but added services for those that are real fans. Some publishers and artists are experimenting with this in different ways.

Technology today allows you to access those groups of people in ways that were impossible before. Some real fans may pay quite a lot more for extra services. But that is their choice, something technology will now allow them.

As opposed to everyone being asked to pay $5 a pop, no matter what. The only choice for the customer is to buy or not buy.

What would happen if Time presented their weekly magazine at say $20 a year, but it was essentially a PDF version of their printed version. But for $50 a year (a buck a week), you could get an iPad optimized version with some real bells and whistles. Add another $10 a year to be free of ads. Perhaps another $20 to get all sorts of extra photos and videos – perhaps the raw video – not seen by anyone else. Perhaps another $10 for an extra special Person of the Year issue.

Other magazines with special issues – think Sports Illustrated swimsuits – could provide all sorts of extras for those willing to pay more.

Instead of working on 3 separate versions, as Time states it is doing, hook them with the free version and then work to move them to premium services.

It’s the cable model. Make the basic version. ads and all, available to as many people as possible. Make the content compelling enough and the extra services rewarding enough. It seems that model would serve both the Long Tail, which is not really accessible by current methods, as well as finding and servicing the smaller number, but more committed, of fans willing to pay much more for greater information.

The publisher that can really commit to something like this, and succeed, will be breaking some barriers.

But it puts a lot of the choice for pricing not on Time but on the customer. Old way – I can choose what Time wants to give me at the price it decides or I can choose not to participate at all. New way – I get to choose what level of payment I want make and how much to participate in its novel services. My choice versus Time’s.