Science is not a house of cards

by D-32

The Economist: Are you a house-of-cardist, or a jigsaw-puzzle-ist? (Climate Change Department)
[Via Knight Science Journalism Tracker]

In the Economist, bulwark of smart and anonymous reporting, one finds a piece recently with one particularly brilliant, clarifying paragraph. Whoever wrote it should get a few pints bought him or her by mates at the pub for putting things this way.

The topic is the storms that are blowing through the political science of climate change science and whether said science is now discredited – or will go on pretty much as it has because of deep robustness and no matter what the skeptic bloggers and other opportunists say.

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The same perspective of denialists (that science is a house of cards, easily destroyed by removing a single one) with respect to climate change has always been seen when I have dealt with creationists. They seem to think that if only one thing is incorrect, then everything is incorrect.

If scientific models were that fragile, we would never have been able to construct such robust descriptions of the world around us. Because science is shown to be wrong all the time. In fact, that is what helps drive science forward.

We get to what is right faster the sooner we figure out what is wrong. It is more like the aphorism about sculpting Michelangelo’s David – you remove everything that is not David.

A theory built as a house of cards would not be resilient enough to be very useful. That is why scientists are jigsaw puzzle fans.

And denialists often live in a weird world. As stated in the Economist article:

Adding the uncertainties about sensitivity to uncertainties about how much greenhouse gas will be emitted, the IPCC expects the temperature to have increased by 1.1ºC to 6.4ºC over the course of the 21st century. That low figure would sit fairly well with the sort of picture that doubters think science is ignoring or covering up.

[snip]

Using the IPCC’s assessment of probabilities, the sensitivity to a doubling of carbon dioxide of less than 1.5ºC in such a scenario has perhaps one chance in ten of being correct. But if the IPCC were underestimating things by a factor of five or so, that would still leave only a 50:50 chance of such a desirable outcome. The fact that the uncertainties allow you to construct a relatively benign future does not allow you to ignore futures in which climate change is large, and in some of which it is very dangerous indeed. The doubters are right that uncertainties are rife in climate science. They are wrong when they present that as a reason for inaction.

So, even if the IPCC is off by a factor of 5 (something no data have really suggested), there is only a 50% chance that things will be as good as the denialists hope. But there is also a 50% chance that things will be much worse.

Do we want to bet on something that, even by giving huge sway to a certain viewpoint, gives us only a 50:50 chance? And what if the probabilities are not off by 5-fold?

WHo is building their model on a house of cards now?

And the Easter Bunny does not really exist

by caricaturas

Spoiler alert: TV medical dramas ‘rife’ with bioethical issues and breaches of professional conduct
[Via Eureka! Science News]

A medical student and faculty directors from the Johns Hopkins Berman Institute of Bioethics analyzed depictions of bioethical issues and professionalism over a full season of two popular medical dramas—”Grey’s Anatomy” and “House, M.D.”—and found that the shows were “rife” with ethical dilemmas and actions that often ran afoul of professional codes of conduct. The authors of the review, available in the April issue of the Journal of Medical Ethics, say they were well aware that their findings would end up stating the obvious. But they nonetheless wanted to provide data that would shed light on the relationship of these depictions on the perceptions of viewers, both health professionals and the general public.

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Well, at least they got a paper out of it. Almost every episode of House involves patients being horribly mistreated as the doctors search for the real cure. It seems to be all about ethical violations.

But that is the way of drama. Just as in cop shows where they violate search and seizure all the time, or keep interrogating prisoners after they have asked for counsel, etc.

Dramas live by the sorts of conflicts not seen in normal life. and they take narrative shortcuts all the time to get to the conflicts faster. So such things as waiting for a search warrant, or taking weeks to get the data, etc. are all compressed to as to keep things moving.

It is the same principle that produces an empty parking space right in front of the building every time for the protagonists. Maybe I’ll get a paper out about how parking is depicted in dramas. Or how apartments for medical students are so nicely, and expensively, decorated,

This’ll be fun

from NASA

The dawn of a new epoch?
[Via Eureka! Science News]

Geologists from the University of Leicester are among four scientists- including a Nobel prize-winner – who suggest that the Earth has entered a new age of geological time. The Age of Aquarius? Not quite – It’s the Anthropocene Epoch, say the scientists writing in the journal Environmental Science & Technology. (web issue March 29; print issue April 1)

And they add that the dawning of this new epoch may include the sixth largest mass extinction in the Earth’s history.

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The scientists admit that getting official recognition for the new epoch will be “contentious,” which seems like it could be underplaying the fervor of each side.

I just wonder what will happen if the new designation actually gets approved. This certainly seems like something to stay aware of.

I love Ambrosia’s stuff

First look: Ambrosia’s Mondo Solitaire and Aki Mahjong for iPad
[Via The Unofficial Apple Weblog (TUAW)]

Ambrosia Software CEO Andrew Welch kindly sent over these sneak peaks at two of their upcoming iPad titles, namely Mondo Solitaire and Aki Mahjong. As you can see, both titles have been written exclusively for the iPad to take advantage of the larger screen size.

I haven’t personally played either game on the iPhone but after watching these videos, I’m definitely looking forward to trying them out — especially the solitaire app. I think the table-based pick-the-game interaction is a little inelegant but the actual card play looks appealing.

As for the Mahjong game, which follow in the Read More section, it addresses my biggest issue with iPhone-based tile games, namely size. Game play is going to be so much better than on the cramped iPhone screen. Although there are several excellent Mahjong offerings currently on App Store, I never felt comfortable using those games with so few pixels.

Both card games and tile games will really benefit from the iPad’s better geometry and it’s ability to approximate real-world sizes of these tangible objects. How will these to play in real life? These videos give a taste of what’s to come.

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Ambrosia has always had some very unique utilities and games for the Mac. Snapz Pro X is my favorite option for copying whatever is on the scree.

It is wonderful to see what they are doing for the iPad. It looks like they will have a Sudoku game as well.

What will they do with iPads?

by DVIDSHUB

Taliban forces in Afghanistan successfully use iPhone on the battlefield
[Via Edible Apple]

The iPod may evoke images of a teeny bopping 13 year old listening to John Mayer, a 25 year old hipster in Brooklyn, or simply a serious runner who enjoys listening to music on long runs. But one image that probably doesn’t automatically jump into people’s minds is that of an iPod being used on the battlefield.

The US Military has long used iPods to help with Arabic translation during interrogations, and just recently we reported that a group of US Army tech heads recently visited Apple headquarters to take a tour of Apple’s top secret development labs. It turns out, though, that the US is not the only warring force interested in using Apple products on the battlefield.

ZDNet Australia is reporting that Taliban forces in Afghanistan are successfully using the iPhone to help stay one step ahead of attacking forces.

At the Australian Computer Society (ACS) Canberra Branch conference this morning, [CTO Matt] Yannopoilos said “bad guys” in the war-torn country were making better use of available data by “using iPhones and applications — and multiple SIM cards — and going much faster than we are”, despite the fact that Defence had more intelligence at its fingertips.

“Information is what is the thing to sort out in a modern warfare,” he said. “It’s less about how much lead [metal] you can rain down on somebody and more about: Do you know where they are? Do you know what they are doing? And how do you get that information to your forces?”

Streamlining, folks. Streamlining.

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This is the sort of thing that Global Guerillas talks about all the time. Technology like this makes it very easy for small groups to coordinate their actions. Large=scale fighting is not something they do.