People really are dumber than pigeons

by foxypar4

NCBI ROFL: Are birds smarter than mathematicians? Pigeons perform optimally on a version of the Monty Hall Dilemma.
[Via Discoblog]

“The “Monty Hall Dilemma” (MHD) is a well known probability puzzle in which a player tries to guess which of three doors conceals a desirable prize. After an initial choice is made, one of the remaining doors is opened, revealing no prize. The player is then given the option of staying with their initial guess or switching to the other unopened door. Most people opt to stay with their initial guess, despite the fact that switching doubles the probability of winning. A series of experiments investigated whether pigeons (Columba livia), like most humans, would fail to maximize their expected winnings in a version of the MHD. Birds completed multiple trials of a standard MHD, with the three response keys in an operant chamber serving as the three doors and access to mixed grain as the prize. Across experiments, the probability of gaining reinforcement for switching and staying was manipulated, and birds adjusted their probability of switching and staying to approximate the optimal strategy. Replication of the procedure with human participants showed that humans failed to adopt optimal strategies, even with extensive training.”

[More]

I think it is great that birds can be trained to respond properly but humans can not, even with extensive training. There has to be some deep rooted need to think that they picked the right door from the beginning, I guess.

The way I worked through the rationale of choice was this way. What is the chance I chose wrong the first time? Two out of three. So if I play the game multiple times, two out of three of those times, it will be one of the other doors. I lose.

But Monty reveals to me which of those other doors is NOT holding the prize. So logically, two of of three times, it will be behind the unrevealed, unchosen door. SInce I have a one out of three chance of being right if I stay but a two out of three chance of winning if I switch, I should switch.

Birds get that. Why don’t humans?