by cliff1066™
A Megacity Girds for a Major Quake
[Via Dot Earth]
I have an article running in The Times on efforts to move away from what the psychologist Paul Slovic calls “gut” thinking, which tends to make people discount long-term threats even if science has delineated them with crystal clarity. The focus is great earthquakes that, without any doubt, will someday hammer great cities. The case study is Istanbul, but it could just as easily be Lima or Katmandu or Karachi or a host of other fast-growing urban centers in developing countries.
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This is the sort of undertaking far too many cities are not doing. So many cities are built on or near fault zones. People may know what they need to do but it can just be so slow to make the changes.
There is a 1/8 chance of a 9.0 happening off the coast of Oregon in the next 50 years. Here is a nice article with a great visual of some of the problems worldwide.
See that little dot on the West Coast. That is Seattle. In the Seattle area, we are almost 10 years on from the Nisqually quake, a relatively tame 6.8 tremor. We may not get as big a one as Oregon but we have a large population on pretty unstable land.
The Nisqually quake, whose tremors lasted maybe 30 seconds, was one of the peak events in my life. Our waterfront office building was built on fill that in some quakes, such as seen in San Francisco, can become almost liquid during an earthquake. Luckily the building I was working in had lots of quake retrofitting and remained intact.
But I could look down the hallway and see the floor ripple with the waves of the temblor. Spookiest thing I have ever seen. And one of the scariest.
If the firm, strong edifice I worked in could ripple and buckle like a weird funhouse attraction, then how stable were so many of my perceptions of the world around me?
I stood there in the doorway thinking that the decision I made in the next few seconds could be the difference between life and death. I could go out the window, probably survive the jump but have to worry about falling glass and a falling freeway next to us (more on that later).
Or I could try for the interior stair well. Being reinforced concrete, it might survive the building coming down but could also become a place where I would be entombed waiting for rescuers. I could duck underneath my desk but have to worry about the ceiling beams coming down and pinning me there.
Luckily the shaking stopped before I had to make any critical decisions.
However, the freeway right next to the building, the Alaskan Way Viaduct (seen above), was damaged by the earthquake. Analysis indicated that it had to come down; that it would not sustain another large quake.
So, almost 10 years later and the viaduct still stands. We have made some political progress and there may be a project begun shortly. It is hard to know for sure because the current mayor wants to stop this project. Even if there are no roadblocks, it will not be finished until around 2016, 15 years after the need was recognized. That is assuming no barriers arise.
Experts say there is a 5% chance an earthquake that destroys the Viaduct will occur before completion.
It may take another quake, perhaps one that actually brings the freeway down, before a route that carries about 110,000 cars a day is actually fixed.
Seattle does not seem to be girding very rapidly. I am certainly glad I am working anywhere near the Viaduct anymore.
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