A great way to teach

Lying for skepticism:
[Via Bad Astronomy]

Is it ever OK to lie for skepticism? I would say yes, under very specific circumstances… like when you’re teaching students to think critically:

“Now I know some of you have already heard of me, but for the benefit of those who are unfamiliar, let me explain how I teach. Between today until the class right before finals, it is my intention to work into each of my lectures … one lie. Your job, as students, among other things, is to try and catch me in the Lie of the Day.”

[...]

This was an insidiously brilliant technique to focus our attention – by offering an open invitation for students to challenge his statements, he transmitted lessons that lasted far beyond the immediate subject matter and taught us to constantly check new statements and claims with what we already accept as fact.

This is a wonderful story, and I think makes an effective teaching method. And it forces students to pay attention… while making them eager to do so! Read the whole thing; you’ll get a smile from it.

Tip o’ the tweed jacket to Craig Temple.

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Of curse, there will be those who would not like this approach. But then they probably do not really want to learn much of anything.

I think it can be a great way to go but it also requires quite a bit of work by the professor. He can’t accidently say something wrong or he would have 2 things wrong.

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FoxNews continues to spout misleading information about the climate

step to 2008 by kevindooley
FoxNews’ Neil Cavuto still thinks winter chill disproves global warming; actual scientists disagree:
[Via Climate Progress]

Last week I went on FoxNews so Neil Cavuto could diss global warming because it was cold outside. Shockingly, I failed to persuade him that no one ever said global warming would turn January into July — though at least he seems to have internalized my message as the “Duh!” part of his opening in the above compilation. Think Progress has the whole, sad story in this repost:

In recent days, conservatives have seized on the cold snap gripping the southeast region of the country to cast doubt on global warming. “Hey Al Gore: we want our global warming, and we want it now,” said Newsbusters’ Mark Finkelstein. In his newsletter today, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich wondered about “Al Gore’s explanation for this miserable, persistent chill,” and the National Review’s Mona Charen claimed that the “cold snap has spurred the ‘warmists’ to spin control.”

For the past week, Fox News host Neil Cavuto has been giving a daily “Fox News global warming alert,” which consists of him telling viewers how cold it is. “It is still cold,” Cavuto said yesterday, adding that it’s “not your recent garden variety global warming.” “It’s freezing across the entire globe,” Cavuto shouted on Saturday. Former Nixon speechwriter and actor Ben Stein responded, “Maybe somebody in the government will wake up and say, ‘Hey, it’s colder. It’s not hotter.’ Maybe all this talk about global warming needs to be rethought.”

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Really? The entire globe? Washington state has been warmer this month than normal. So has Alaska. So has Greenland.

Anyone who actually takes what these guys say with any grain of salt is simply allowing misinformation and lies to color their judgement. Why would any rational person interested in what is really going on listen to anything said by Neil Cavuto? It is so easy to show that he is not telling the truth.

Here is a nice figure, looking at record highs and record lows, from UCAR:

Temps US

This is a useful figure, even though it looks at just the US, because it demonstrates exactly the trend one would expect to see with global warming. Over a long period of time, the trends seen can be very educational. I would expect that similar figures for Europe or Asia would be much the same.

While the ratio of record highs to record lows used to be about 1:1 or less, the last 3 decades have seen the ratio increase. In the last decade, there were twice as many record highs as record lows.

In fact, most of this is coming from warmer nights than we had seen 50 years ago. A few days of cold weather will not destroy this trend. According to the models, by 2050, the ratio could be 50:1. Here is a key quote:

Despite the increasing number of record highs, there will still be occasional periods of record cold, Meehl notes.



“One of the messages of this study is that you still get cold days,” Meehl says. “Winter still comes. Even in a much warmer climate, we’re setting record low minimum temperatures on a few days each year. But the odds are shifting so there’s a much better chance of daily record highs instead of lows.”

The point from this figure is not that it ‘proves’ climate change. It is that having a few days of cold daytime weather does not negate many, many days of warmer nights.

No matter what Neil Cavuto says. But then, his job is apparently not to actually inform anybody of the facts.

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Quotes to remember

lego plane by psiaki “All models are wrongâ€: [Via Anne Truitt Zelenka]

George E.B. Box, a British industrial statistician known for his work in quality control and time series analysis, allegedly said:

All models are wrong, but some are useful.

This soothes me. I thought I always had to be right! I’m realizing that useful data analysis is not so much a matter of rightness as of goodness: good judgment, usefulness, practicality.Dick DeVeaux of Williams College suggests that if math is music, then statistics is literature:

Literature is about the world, not about rules. It deals with life’s experience and the wisdom we develop over time.

Numbers are about the world too — at least they can be. With statistics (and related tools like data visualization) we can talk more meaningfully about the world.

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Science is really just the creation of models to describe the natural world. These models generally start off pretty crude (i.e. the Sun revolves around the Earth) and get better as we learn more. They asymptotically (Love using math words) approach true reality as we gain more knowledge.

Asimov wrote a great article about this called the Relativity of Wrong. The best models are the ones that can lead to better approximations of the truth. These are useful in the best possible way.

The problem with most denialist’s ‘theories’ (i.e. creationism) is that they do not lead to anything that is a better approximation. They almost always are dead ends and are not very useful at all.

They are not only wrong, as any model is, but they are simply not useful.

A turning point?

publish by fdecomite

Panel Calls on U.S. Agencies to Require Free Access to Research Papers
[Via ScienceInsider]

by Jocelyn Kaiser A diverse group of scientific publishers, librarians, and university officials has come together to endorse a once-controversial idea: that all federal research agencies should require that papers published by the investigators they support be made freely available…

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It looks like everyone on both sides of the publishing issue are coming together to push for the free availability of scientific publications. This will sure make it easier for me to read some of the se papers.

The Democrat death knell

“A Junk Insurance Tax”

[Via Mike the Mad Biologist]

To follow up on Tuesday’s post about Massachusetts’ healthcare, it bears repeating: healthcare reform has to make people’s lives better. In other words, people have to like this crap. And this isn’t cutting it (boldface mine; italics original):

When it came time to renew my own insurance, I asked the insurance broker, what it would cost to buy good insurance in New York State. She said, “sit down”. I held my breath in anticipation, she said, “$1300 a month.”

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Taxing middle class benefits so that people have to take lower insurance with higher deductibles and pay more out of pocket seems like a sure way to become a minority party. What are they thinking?

As the example shows, even crappy insurance can hit the Cadillac limit. And people can still be bankrupted by illness. The goal of all this is to have more people get better healthcare, not have less access that costs them more.

I really have to wonder why the conservative democrats have such a death wish. Then I remember how much they are financed by corporate interests, or have wives that work in the industry being regulated, and it becomes clear.

Perhaps one of these days we will have politicians who are not so beholden to corporations. But I expect it will not be for quite some time.

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