It beat Idol!

 3167 2807679771 Bea0745A8E by spotbott
38 Million View Obama’s Speech; Highest-Rated Convention In History – TV Decoder Blog – NYTimes.com:
[Via New York Times]

Barack Obama accepted the Democratic nomination for president on Thursday as an estimated 38 million viewers watched on television, setting a new record for convention viewership, according to Nielsen Media Research.

Mr. Obama’s speech — a historic one given his status as the first African American nominee of a major political party — reached significantly more viewers than the comparable addresses in 2004. Coverage of John Kerry’s acceptance speech in 2004 had 24.4 million viewers; coverage of George W. Bush’s convention speech that same year drew 27.5 million.

The audience estimate of 38.3 million means that Mr. Obama’s speech reached more viewers than the Olympics opening ceremony in Beijing, the final “American Idol” or the Academy Awards this year, the Associated Press notes.

Furthermore, the four-night Democratic convention ranks as the most-watched convention of either party, Democratic or Republican, since Nielsen began measuring conventions in 1960.

[More]

Wow! More viewers than the Opening Ceremonies! And this does not count anyone watching PBS or C-SPAN or online. At one point, CNN had more people watching than any of the broadcast channels, another first.

People are really engaged in the election this year. I expect that the Republican National Convention will pull in big numbers.

Every so often in American politics, the people get very interested in an election. It appears this is one of them. I think we will see a higher percentage of eligible people voting than in a very long time.

No sex?

amazon by markg6
Amazon hides sales rank on certain books:
[Via LISNews - Librarian And Information Science News]

Amazon.com is hiding the sales rank on certain risque books if they become too popular. Full story here. The books in the article may be the best selling books in the country. According to the article their is a strong argument that they are at least in the Amazon top 100.

Amazon can maintain its community by being an impartial agent. If it is censoring some of the data because the books deal with sex, then it is providing an inaccurate picture of the community. The questions brought up here should be answered.

Technorati Tags: ,

Another way to count

Very Close USA-China Olympic Medal Race (if you count points):

[Via Master of 500 Hats]

Beijingolympics2008

China is killing on gold medals. (pre-pubescent Chinese gymnasts tbd)
USA leading on total medals.

however, it’s very close race if you count using points where:

  • Gold = 3 points
  • Silver = 2 points
  • Bronze = 1 point

using this method, the results look like this:

Picture 23

I mentioned my way to count the medals below. Here is what happens if we apply point:

Medals2

We kicked butt if you use this method. Let’s convince the major media to use it.

Technorati Tags: ,

Posted in General. 1 Comment »

A better way to count

 50 144522482 212764D27A by jim orsini

There has been some discussion recently about the way medals are counted at the Olympics. Do we only count gold or total medals?

Well, I have the best way and it shows the US is far above anyone else. And, thanks to the NBC site, I have the data.

The real measure should be how many individuals walk away from the Olympics with a medal. Not how many events were won. we should applaud the people who got a medal after all that hard work.

So, if you go to the total medals for the US and for China, you can see the individuals who won a medal and what color it was. Putting this into an Excel spreadsheet, I could do a little data mining.

The results:
Medals

We just do so much better in the team sports. So let’s count all of the medals, not just enumerate the events.

Technorati Tags: ,

Posted in General. 1 Comment »

NHGRI seeks DNA sequencing technologies fit for routine laboratory and medical use

 2309 2073336603 9Ebae51830 by net_efekt
NHGRI seeks DNA sequencing technologies fit for routine laboratory and medical use:
[Via EurekAlert! - Biology]

(NIH/National Human Genome Research Institute) The National Human Genome Research Institute, part of the National Institutes of Health, today awarded more than $20 million in grants to develop innovative sequencing technologies inexpensive and efficient enough to sequence a person’s DNA as a routine part of biomedical research and health care.

These grants are part of the push to get the cost for the sequencing of a single person’s genome to under $1000. Lots of stuff with nanopores and nanogaps. As well as some novel chemistries.

Let’s hope medicine can cope with this since so many still use all paper files and write in long hand.

Small is nice

The iPod of Thermocyclers:
[Via Deep Sea News]

palmpcr.pngAhram Biosystems just released a handheld PCR machine affectionately called the Palm PCR. Oh yeah baby. Now you can just strap this 330 g (with battery) puppy to your arm when you go out for a jog. Wait! Is that dead body? Throw a hair in there and amplify as you wipe the sweat of your brow (make sure it doesn’t fall inside the Palm PCR though…). But don’t get too comfy, you’ll have your 2kbp product in only 15-30 min.

“Palm PCR is powered by a Li-ion battery that enables more than 4 hours of continuous operation on a single charge. It is designed to adapt the standard 9 mm-spaced well format to use with a disposable plastic sample-tube. Nearly all kinds of DNA samples, including the human genome, can be amplified in less than 25 or 30 minutes. Even a single copy of DNA can be amplified in as little as 25 minutes to an amount sufficient for typical agarose-gel detection.”

Even the human genome!!! In 25-20 minutes!! Holy Manta Batrayman! Thankfully you can choose between white, yellow, red and blue. I want to get the Palm PCR that is the right color to match my lifestyle. VWR already has the accessories In production including leather cases, car adapter, bluetooth headset, detachable mix-and-match faces and a pipette holster.

Read the comments on this post…

I expect to see this on CSI soon. Of course, as one of the comments makes clear there are a lot of other things needed ti support this that are not yet portable. But the thought that I could start a PCR and then carry the machine around with me is kind of cool.

Technorati Tags: ,

Online appointments

 2318 1572262745 A37F055A51 by Conor Lawless
A service that I might use:
[Via business|bytes|genes|molecules]

CNET reports that Khosla Ventures has led an investment round of $3 million in ZocDoc, a health 2.0 company a little off the beaten path.

ZocDoc, which currently operates only in Brooklyn and Manhattan, allows you to find an appointment with a doctor or dentist. Now that’s a service I could really use. It matches doctors to insurance and a rating system.

I don’t know how well it works since I really can’t make good use of it living in Seattle, but the company, which is about a year old, is providing the kind of simple service that could be really useful if done right.

It will be interesting how well the ratings work and other Web 2.0 aspects function but for making an appointment it does simplify things. I’m a little nervous about making a doctor’s appointment in the same way I order food online but it is a worthwhile thing to begin examining.

Technorati Tags:

Ultra Rice to the rescue

rice
Luke Timmerman wrote:

Duffy Cox and his dad, James, had a great idea that went nowhere for years. Their quest to develop Vitamin-A fortified rice, which could put a dent in global malnutrition, started in 1985. That’s when the father-and-son inventors at Bellingham, WA-based Bon Dente International, a research and development firm, were asked to give it a shot by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Vitamin A deficiencies are thought to kill 2-3 million children a year in developing countries, so getting it into a staple food like rice is a big deal. For years, though, food scientists considered such rice fortification a big challenge, because Vitamin A has a short shelf-life and is susceptible to heat and humidity common in warehouses of the developing world, Duffy Cox says.
After five years of experiments, and the assistance of a researcher at Iowa State University, they nailed it. Through a process that’s like making pasta—running rice through a type of noodle-making machine—they were able to extend the shelf life of Vitamin A in rice from one week to about six months, and withstand hot and humid storage conditions, Cox says. The patent issued in the mid-1990s, and the family entrepreneurs then traveled to Asia and Latin America, trying to strike deals with local partners and distributors to get it out into the marketplace. They trademarked it Ultra Rice.
Then the whole thing fell flat. It could have been language barriers, cultural barriers, resistance from competitors, all of the above, or something else, Cox says. “We’re not marketers. We like to develop a unique concept and let somebody else take over,” he says.
[More]

This a neat story, abut how research can provide novel ways to feed people, and even if the market place is not initially receptive, the technology can get out there. It is a nice story of donated IP and non-profits working together to make something happen. It will be worthwhile to see how this develops.

Technorati Tags: , ,

Missing the point?

pendulum by sylvar
[Crossposted at SpreadingScience]

It has been about a month since Science published
Electronic Publication and the Narrowing of Science and Scholarship by James Evans. I’ve waited some time to comment because the results were somewhat nonintuitive, leading to some deeper thinking.

The results seem to indicate that greater access to online journals results in fewer citations. The reasons for this are causing some discussion. Part of what I wlll maintain is that papers from 15 years ago were loaded with references for two reasons that are no longer relevant today: to demonstrate how hard the author had worked to find relevant information and to help the reader in their searches for information.

Finding information today is too easy for there to be as great a need to include a multitude of similar references.

Many people feel the opposite, that the ease in finding references, via such sites as PubMed, would result in more papers being cited not less. Bench Marks has this to say:

Evans brings up a few possibilities to explain his data. First, that the better search capabilities online have led to a streamlining of the research process, that authors of papers are better able to eliminate unrelated material, that searching online rather than browsing print “facilitates avoidance of older and less relevant literature.” The online environment better enables consensus, “If online researchers can more easily find prevailing opinion, they are more likely to follow it, leading to more citations referencing fewer articles.” The danger here, as Evans points out, is that if consensus is so easily reached and so heavily reinforced, “Findings and ideas that do not become consensus quickly will be forgotten quickly.” And that’s worrisome–we need the outliers, the iconoclasts, those willing to challenge dogma. There’s also a great wealth in the past literature that may end up being ignored, forcing researchers to repeat experiments already done, to reinvent the wheel out of ignorance of papers more than a few years old. I know from experience on the book publishing side of things that getting people to read the classic literature of a field is difficult at best. The keenest scientific minds that I know are all well-versed in the histories of their fields, going back well into the 19th century in some fields. But for most of us, it’s hard to find the time to dig that deeply, and reading a review of a review of a review is easier and more efficient in the moment. But it’s less efficient in the big picture, as not knowing what’s already been proposed and examined can mean years of redundant work.

But this is true of journals stored in library stacks, before online editions. It was such a pain to use Index Medicus or a review article (reading a review article has always been the fastest way to get up to speed. It has nothing to do with being online or not) and find the articles that were really needed. So people would include every damn one they found that was relevant. The time spent finding the reference had to have some payoff.

Also, one would just reuse citations for procedures, adding on to those already used in previous papers. The time spent tracking down those references would be paid out by continuing usage, particularly in the Introduction and Materials & Methods sections. Many times, researchers would have 4 or 5 different articles all saying the similar things or using the same technique just to provide evidence of how hard they had worked to find them (“I had to find these damned articles on PCR generated mutagenesis and I am going to make sure I get maximum usage out of them.”)

There are other possible answers for the data that do not mean that Science and Scholarship are narrowing, at least not in a negative sense. A comment at LISNews leads to one possible reason – an artifact of how the publishing world has changed.
The comment takes us to a commentary of the Evans’ article.While this is behind the subscription wall, there is this relevant paragraph:

One possible explanation for the disparate results in older citations is that Evans’s findings reflect shorter publishing times. “Say I wrote a paper in 2007″ that didn’t come out for a year, says Luis Amaral, a physicist working on complex systems at Northwestern University in Evanston, Illinois, whose findings clash with Evans’s. “This paper with a date of 2008 is citing papers from 2005, 2006.” But if the journal publishes the paper the same year it was submitted, 2007, its citations will appear more recent.

[As an aside, when did it become Evans's rather than Evans'? I'd have gotten points of from my English teacher for that. Yet a premier journal like Science now shows that I can use it that way.]

The commentary also mentions work that appears to lead to different conclusions:

Oddly, “our studies show the opposite,” says Carol Tenopir, an information scientist at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville. She and her statistician colleague Donald King of the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, have surveyed thousands of scientists over the years for their scholarly reading habits. They found that scientists are reading older articles and reading more broadly–at least one article a year from 23 different journals, compared with 13 journals in the late 1970s. In legal research, too, “people are going further back,” says Dana Neac u, head of public services at Columbia University’s Law School Library in New York City, who has studied the question.

So scientists are reading more widely and more deeply. They just do not add that reading to their reference lists. Why? Part of it might be human nature. Since it is so much easier to find relevant papers, having a long list no longer demonstrates how hard one worked to find them. Citing 8 articles at a time no longer means much at all.

That is, stating “PCR has been used to create mutations in a gene sequence 23-32” no longer demonstrates the hard work put into gathering those references. It is so easy to find a reference that adding more than a few looks like overkill. That does not mean that the scientists are not reading all those other ones. They still appear to be, and are even reading more, they just may be including only the relevant ones in their citations.

Two others put the data into a different perspective. Bill Hooker at Open Reading Frame did more than most of us. He actually went exploring in the paper itself and added his own commentary. Let’s look at his response to examining older articles:

The first is that citing more and older references is somehow better — that bit about “anchor[ing] findings deeply intro past and present scholarship”. I don’t buy it. Anyone who wants to read deeply into the past of a field can follow the citation trail back from more recent references, and there’s no point cluttering up every paper with every single reference back to Aristotle. As you go further back there are more errors, mistaken models, lack of information, technical difficulties overcome in later work, and so on — and that’s how it’s supposed to work. I’m not saying that it’s not worth reading way back in the archives, or that you don’t sometimes find overlooked ideas or observations there, but I am saying that it’s not something you want to spend most of your time doing.

It is much harder work to determine how relevant a random 10 year old paper is than one published last month. In the vast majority of cases, particularly in a rapidly advancing field (say neuroscience) papers that old will be chock full of errors based on inadequate knowledge. This would diminish their usefulness as a reference. In general, new papers will be better to use. I would be curious for someone to examine reference patterns in papers published 15 years ago to see how many of the multitude of citations are actually relevant or even correct?

Finally, one reason to include a lot of references is to help your readers find the needed information without having to do the painful work of digging it out themselves. This is the main reason to include lots of citations.

When I started in research, a good review article was extremely valuable. I could use it to dig out the articles I needed. I loved papers with lots of references, since it made my life easier. This benefit is no longer quite as needed because other approaches are now available to find relevant papers in a much more rapid fashion than just a few years ago.

Bill discusses this, demonstrating that since it is so much easier to find relevant article today, this need to help the reader in THEIR searches is greatly diminshed.

OK, suppose you do show that — it’s only a bad thing if you assume that the authors who are citing fewer and more recent articles are somehow ignorant of the earlier work. They’re not: as I said, later work builds on earlier. Evans makes no attempt to demonstrate that there is a break in the citation trail — that these authors who are citing fewer and more recent articles are in any way missing something relevant. Rather, I’d say they’re simply citing what they need to get their point across, and leaving readers who want to cast a wider net to do that for themselves (which, of course, they can do much more rapidly and thoroughly now that they can do it online).

Finally, he really examines the data to see if they actually show what many other reports have encapsulated. What he finds is that the online access is not really equal. Much of it is still commercial and requires payment. He has this to say when examining the difference between commercial online content and Open Access (my emphasis):

What this suggests to me is that the driving force in Evans’ suggested “narrow[ing of] the range of findings and ideas built upon” is not online access per se but in fact commercial access, with its attendant question of who can afford to read what. Evans’ own data indicate that if the online access in question is free of charge, the apparent narrowing effect is significantly reduced or even reversed. Moreover, the commercially available corpus is and has always been much larger than the freely available body of knowledge (for instance, DOAJ currently lists around 3500 journals, approximately 10-15% of the total number of scholarly journals). This indicates that if all of the online access that went into Evans’ model had been free all along, the anti-narrowing effect of Open Access would be considerably amplified.

[See he uses the possessive of Evans the way I was taught. I wish that they would tell me when grammar rules change so I could keep up.]

It will take a lot more work to see if there really is a significant difference in the patterns between Open Access publications and commercial ones. But this give and take that Bill utilizes is exactly how Science progresses. Some data is presented, with a hypothesis. Others critique the hypothesis and do further experiments to determine which is correct. The conclusions from Evans’ paper are still too tentative, in my opinion, and Bill’s criticisms provide ample fodder for further examinations.

Finally, Deepak Singh at BBGM provides an interesting perspective. He gets into one of the main points that I think is rapidly changing much of how we do research. Finding information is so easy today that one can rapidly gather links. This means that even interested amateurs can find information they need, something that was almost impossible before the Web.

The authors fail to realize that for the majority of us, the non-specialists, the web is a treasure trove of knowledge that most either did not have access to before, or had to do too much work to get. Any knowledge that they have is better than what they would have had in the absence of all this information at our fingertips. Could the tools they have to become more efficient and deal with this information glut be improved? Of course, and so will our habits evolve as we learn to deal with information overload.

He further discusses the effects on himself and other researchers:

So what about those who make information their life. Creating it, parsing it, trying to glean additional information to it. As one of those, and having met and known many others, all I can say is that to say that the internet and all this information has made us shallower in our searching is completely off the mark. It’s easy enough to go from A –> B, but the fun part is going from A –> B –> C –> D or even A –> B –> C –> H, which is the fun part of online discovery. I would argue that in looking for citations we can now find citations of increased relevance, rather than rehashing ones that others do, and that’s only part of the story. We have the ability to discovery links through our online networks. It’s up to the user tho bring some diversity into those networks, and I would wager most of us do that.

So, even if there is something ‘bad’ about scientists having a more shallow set of citations in their publications, this is outweighed by the huge positive seen in easy access for non-scientists. They can now find information that used to be so hard to find that only experts ever read them. The citation list may be shorter but the diversity of the readers could be substantially enlarged.

Finally, Philip Davis at The Scholarly Kitchen may provide the best perspective. He also demonstrates how the Web can obliterate previous routes to disseminate information. After all the to-do about not going far enough back into the past for references, Philip provides not only a link (lets call it a citation) from a 1965 paper by Derek Price but also provides a quote:

I am tempted to conclude that a very large fraction of the alleged 35,000 journals now current must be reckoned as merely a distant background noise, and as far from central or strategic in any of the knitted strips from which the cloth of science is woven.

So even forty years ago it was recognized that most publications were just background noise. But, what Philip does next is very subtle, since he does not mention it. Follow his link to Price’s paper (which is available on the Web, entitled Networks of Scientific Papers). You can see the references Price had in his paper. a total of 11. But you can also see what papers have used Price’s paper as a reference. You can see that quite a few recent papers have used this forty year old paper as a reference. Seems like some people maintain quite a bit of depth in their citations!

And now, thanks to Philip, I will read an interesting paper I would never have read before. So perhaps there will be new avenues to find relevant papers that does not rely on following a reference list back in time. The Web provides new routes that short circuits this but are not seen if people only follow databases of article references.

In conclusion, the apparent shallownesss may only be an artifact of publishing changes, it may reflect a change in the needs of the authors and their readers, it may not correctly factor in differences in online publishing methods, it could be irrelevant and/or it could be flat out wrong. But it is certainly an important work because it will drive further investigations to tease out just what is going on.

It already has, just by following online conversations about it. And to think that these conversations would not have been accessible to many just 5 years ago. The openness displayed here is another of the tremendous advances of online publication.

Technorati Tags: , , ,

From hypocrite to hero in a couple of steps

bunny by steren.giannini
Learning from RedMonk’s “open source” conundrum:
[Via business|bytes|genes|molecules]

Just chanced upon a wonderful post by Steve O’Grady of Redmonk. The post touches upon a subject near and dear to my heart and to those of many in the online bio community; licensing.

The background: RedMonk bills itself as an open source analyst firm, and has historically licensed content under a CC-NC-SA license. Well someone pointed out that the NC part of the license goes against the open source ethos. Hmmm, we have a problem here.

The solution: Dynamic licensing. The folks at RedMonk are now using a plugin changes the licensing as a function of time. When content is made available, it is available under a CC-NC-SA license, but after 60 days, automatically switches over to a CC-BY-SA license.

Now I am not saying we should specifically be using the licenses described here. The key is the problem, which is much the same that many content producers in the life sciences face today. The second key is the action. RedMonk had a problem and found a solution. A few people have said lately that we should stop talking and take action. We have journals that use CC licensing. We have wikis that do the same and many blogs. Science should be fundamentally open source. We have established that many kinds of raw data belong in the public domain, but there is a lot of generated information that belongs to the content producer. I think we have a blueprint here we should think about.

The original post is well worth reading because it provides a wonderful insight, not only into the working of a company but also how its community helped them solve a tricky problem – How to be a viable commercial entity while remaining true to the openness and transparency that the company espouses. The title explicitly describes a Web 2.0 company – “We’re not perfect, but we try.”

The integrity of O’Grady, as he realizes that his company is not actually doing what they thought they were, that they were, in fact, doing what they had criticized others for, was impressive. I would make sure I dealt with Redmonk if I ever had the need.

The community first identified the problem. Then the organization, realizing that their community, who were also customers, was right, found itself in a corner. But, by being open, the community helped them find a creative solution that not only works but demonstrates real creativity, providing something that will now be useful to many.

And, because everything is open, they were able to work with a developer to create the plug-in they needed. A closed architecture would have made this impossible.

And it is a good business model: Charge for something available RIGHT NOW but make it free after a period of time for others to use. That is actually what copyright was supposed to be before it was corrupted.

Technorati Tags: , ,

Great PSA

 1206 641123258 1B17205487 by mistermoss
TGIF Bonus: What is that kid drawing?:
[Via Deep Sea News]

Something brilliant…


Even better if it had been an octopus.

Very nicely done. Little dialog. But a great demonstration of how the mainstream often deals with innovation.

Technorati Tags:

Posted in General. 1 Comment »

An interesting article

Overexpression of TOSO in CLL is triggered by B-cell receptor signaling and associated with progressive disease:
[Via BLOOD First Edition Papers]
Resistance towards apoptotic stimuli mediated by overexpression of antiapoptotic factors or extracellular survival signals like B-cell receptor stimulation (BCR) are considered to be responsible for accumulation of malignant B cells in CLL. TOSO was identified as overexpressed candidate gene in CLL applying unit-transformation assays of publicly available microarray datasets. Based on CLL samples from 106 patients, TOSO was identified to exhibit elevated relative expression of 6.8 compared to healthy donor B cells using quantitative real-time PCR (p=0.004). High levels of TOSO expression in CLL correlated with high leukocyte count, advanced Binet stage, previous need for chemotherapy and unmutated IgVH status. CD38+ CLL subsets harboring proliferative activity showed enhanced TOSO expression. We evaluated functional mechanisms of aberrant TOSO expression in CLL cells and identified TOSO expression significantly being induced by BCR stimulation compared to control cells (relative expression (RE) 8.25 vs. 4.86, p=0.01). In contrast, CD40L signaling significantly reduced TOSO expression (RE 2.60; p=0.01). In summary, we show that the anti-apoptotic factor TOSO is associated with progressive disease and enhanced in the proliferative CD38+ CLL subset. Both association with unmutated IgVH and the specific induction of TOSO via the BCR suggest autoreactive BCR signaling as a key mediator of apoptosis resistance in CLL.

Let’s get to work

 10 15002057 3767288347 by delgaudm
This Post Might Make You Cry:
[Via Deep Sea News]

I’m sorry but I am going to ruin the rest of your day, week, month, and year. I don’t like packaging conservation messages in the negative but I fail to see any good spin for this. I was going to do a large write up about shifting baselines and Jeremy Jackson’s wonderfully written (as always) paper occurring recently in PNAS as part of special issue addressing biodiversity and biodiversity loss. However, Jeremy provides a table that brings home the message that far excels anything I could write here.

Read the rest of this post… | Read the comments on this post…

I did not so much cry as drop my jaw when I read Dr. Jackson’s article (which apparently is free for anyone to read. Great for OA). Coupled with this report on Dead Zones in the ocean (they are increasing in number at rapid rates), our effect on ocean life may be irreversible.

Dr. Jackson’s abstract is a model of understatement (my emphasis):

The great mass extinctions of the fossil record were a major creative
force that provided entirely new kinds of opportunities for the
subsequent explosive evolution and diversification of surviving
clades. Today, the synergistic effects of human impacts are laying the
groundwork for a comparably great Anthropocene mass extinction in
the oceans with unknown ecological and evolutionary consequences.
Synergistic effects of habitat destruction, overfishing, introduced
species, warming, acidification, toxins, and massive runoff of nutrients
are transforming once complex ecosystems like coral reefs and
kelp forests into monotonous level bottoms, transforming clear and
productive coastal seas into anoxic dead zones, and transforming
complex food webs topped by big animals into simplified, microbially
dominated ecosystems
with boom and bust cycles of toxic dinoflagellate
blooms, jellyfish, and disease. Rates of change are increasingly
fast and nonlinear with sudden phase shifts to novel alternative
community states.
We can only guess at the kinds of organisms that
will benefit from this mayhem that is radically altering the selective
seascape far beyond the consequences of fishing or warming alone.
The prospects are especially bleak for animals and plants compared
with metabolically flexible microbes and algae.
Halting and ultimately
reversing these trends will require rapid and fundamental
changes in fisheries, agricultural practice, and the emissions of greenhouse
gases on a global scale.

We may very well be some those metabolically challenged animals. The oceans are dealing with our overfishing, pollution, and global climate change. While the ocreans will still be here, as well as life of some sort, the possible extinctions could include us without some very smart planning.

Jackson ends his article with focus on three areas where we can begin starting to correct the problems: Sustainable Fishing, Strong regulation of chemical fertilizers and pesticides, and focus on climate change.

We have a lot more to do than just stop using fossil fuels. but that will be a great start.

Technorati Tags:

Change

change by flikr

I wrote something over at my
business blog that needs to always be on the minds of anyone advocating change. Change has to be based on social patterns and interactions that are very likely hardwired into our brains.

New tools usually do not produce a complete alteration in basic human social networks. What they can do is make those networks work more effectively or expand the power of those networks.

However, while basic human interactions (essentially the same sorts of interactions seen in other apes) may not change, they can be overlain with other sorts of social behavior, if those behaviors provide an advantage.

Thus strong hierarchical bureaucracies have probably been around since the beginning of agriculture. These do not map well with human social networks but the advantages (i.e. better food production, better resource allocation, better armies) allowed those who incorporated hierarchies to dominate.

But hierarchies can not dominate everything. I think we are beginning to see some of their limits. While I do not expect them to ever disappear (they are just too useful), I do believe that online approaches for information sharing will become more and more important over the next few years.

Those approaches that take advantage of our innate abilities to form social networks, will permit us to solve very complex problems, ones that hierarchies can not. We need rates of diffusion of innovation that can not be supported by hierarchical organizational structures. It just takes information too much time to traverse this type of network.

Leveraging our innate social networks can greatly decrease the time it takes information to traverse the networks, making it much easier to rapidly solve complex problems. That is the promise of Web 2.0.

Not that it will irretrievably alter us but that it will simply allow us to do something we are really good at, better.

Technorati Tags: , ,

Hope and creativity

crayons by laffy4k
Creativity is about hope:
[Via Curiouser and Curiouser!]

I’ve just read the transcript of a very interesting talk by Malcolm on the work of David Galenson. Galenson is an economist who did a very interesting thing. He studied the value of art works sold at auction and determined that there seemed to be two distinct groups: those whose value peaked in their twenties and thirties and those whose value peaked in their fourties and fifties. He does some other, similar, analyses and comes up with an argument about creativity.

Quoting from the talk:

“Late-bloomers (Cezanne is his archetype who did his most valuable work in his fifties and sixties) are what he calls experimental artists. These are people who are motivated by aesthetic considerations. Their goals are kind of very, very imprecise. They don’t plan anything in advance, they work sort of by trial and error. They do endless iterations of the same idea. They’re constantly redoing and redoing and redoing in this kind of poking around and trying to find something, work toward some kind of distant, imprecise, and badly understood goal. They’re searching, in other words, for what it is they want to create, and that searching can very often take an entire lifetime.”
“Prodigies (Picasso is the archetype here who was, basically, done by his mid-thirties), on the other hand, tend to be much more motivated by the desire, according to Galenson, to communicate ideas. They’re conceptual in the way that they think. They can state their goals very precisely before they start a work of art. The act of painting for them is all about the act of transferring something, some well-realized idea, from one surface to another. The work of experimentalists like Cezanne often kind of complicates and deepens our understanding of something, but conceptualists, people like Picasso, tend to simplify the field that they’re a part of. They work very quickly and systematically.”

This is an interesting way of splitting up creatives. It may very well hold over into science. Darwin would be an example of the Late-bloomers. He did not start out with the grand goal of describing natural selection. It is something he happened to observe. Then he spent the rest of his life incrementally building up this theory until it was a pretty mighty edifice by the time he actually published.

Russell Wallace may be closer to the second kind. He began his trek as a naturalist already believing that a species could become another species over time. He explicitly looked for evidence of evolution during his travels. His work is what drove Darwin to finally publish his. Russell was 36. Darwin was 50.

Galenson’s arguments are controversial and not widely accepted but, and this may be because I want to believe it, I find something compelling about the argument and it’s basis:

Prodigies have an idea clearly in mind and seek to express it (Picasso: “I don’t seek, I find.”)
Late-Bloomers spend their time seeking their idea through expression (Cezanne: “I seek in painting.”)

Gladwell goes on to make an argument that our (western) society has, in terms of how it views creativity, become obsessed with Picasso’s over Cezanne’s. That we are only interested in ‘big ideas’ and the people who come up with them. We don’t value those who iterate towards great ideas. If your first idea sucked that’s pretty much it, you’re done. Cezanne’s early paintings were a bust. In today’s art world he’d be done but you can see this kind of thinking pervading all parts of our society.

Well, the Eureka type of creativity makes a much better narrative but the slow progress makes better science. Savant-like insight may come like a thunderbolt while the other is just hard work (now any of us involved in the field know this is not true but it is how the narrative in our society forms this.)

Wallace may have been right but he would likely not have convinced many of that fact for a long time because he had not built up the body of work that Darwin had on the subject and did not have Darwin’s supportive social network.

Why does this argument appeal to me to so much?

I guess a big part of it is that, despite having a very high opinion of myself, I’m 36 and feel that I have achieved nothing of any substance in my life. In a world where you’re supposed to have your big idea & payday early I feel like I’m forever grasping at ideas that seem to be just out of reach. As I’ve gone from 30 to 36 I’ve become weighed down by a feeling that that’s it, “I’m done.”

Yet I’m still hacking away, learning new things, playing with silly ideas, reading and pondering what’s next. What Galenson offers me is evidence of hope, hope that I might yet turn out to be a late bloomer.

Hope that it’s worth continuing to seek because one day I may find.

I’m sure I will be feeling the same way, probably until the day I die ;-)

I actually think this model breaks down, at least in science, because I certainly feel that many people have maintained tremendous creativity throughout their life, usually by combining the two approaches. That is, they continually move to different areas of creativity, finding new ways to be innovative. Francis Crick is an example. My favorite example is Sydney Brenner, who was also at Cambridge in the 50s and was involved in some of the same work as Crick, helping elucidate the DNA molecule.

He helped discover messenger RNA and was pivotal in demonstrating what the genetic code would look like. He then decided to examine development. He introduced the model organism, Caenorhabditis elegans, which was responsible for many of the breakthroughs seen over the next 30 years in the understanding of how an organism develops from fertilized egg to mature organism. He then moved on to Fugu, which has one of the most interesting genomes in any vertebrate.

All in all, Brenner has 50 years of incredibly creative science in a wide variety of areas, moving from isolated proteins to DNA to invertebrate development to vertebrate genomes. Just incredible.

Technorati Tags: , ,